atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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I don't like open ended shorts... risk reversal... of course switches have just as much blow out risk if not more..
What's the short future long call like.. or short Calender with puts... can you fly to your target?.. gotta define risk in my account
 
Guys, Nov futures have a standard premium to spot, once Oct rolls off and if atticus is correct on direction of vol the Nov futures should run quickly to say 1 point over spot by late October.

A lot has to go right...good luck.
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

I don't like open ended shorts... risk reversal... of course switches have just as much blow out risk if not more..
What's the short future long call like.. or short Calender with puts... can you fly to your target?.. gotta define risk in my account
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Gotcha. Haircut isn't that big on the R/R though. I guess you could always sell calls and then hedge with SPY puts instead.

The Oct contract definitely caught a bid today. Realized vol has been so low lately, I think turned out to be around 8% or so this week. So I suppose there is risk it could rise, but I'm betting the other way.
 
Quote from sellindexvol66:

Guys, Nov futures have a standard premium to spot, once Oct rolls off and if atticus is correct on direction of vol the Nov futures should run quickly to say 1 point over spot by late October.

A lot has to go right...good luck.
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Ok, I agree it's nothing too unusual. But 1 point over spot is still lower than it is now (1.82).
 
The spread is outright short Nov futs, but I would prefer to be in Nov than trade the term structure as I don't see a good opp in Oct/Nov long here. Not saying it won't earn (it should) but I want to isolate to Nov.

I'll give it more room to run as I think it could take 60-75 cents in heat. I'll place the stop in at +1.00.
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

Not following on this one... staying out of front month futures... call me a wuss.. I'm just waiting...
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Yeah, I understand. This is for straights only.
 
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