atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

[Doobs789]

Quote from Doobs789:

Looking to get long some deltas. I think we go up from here. Taking a shot, going long ES at 1432.

Maybe not. Keeping this tight, don't like the action as much anymore.

EDIT: I'm out. Would rather stay on the sidelines now.

 

[cdcaveman]

i like the MA 00/50/00 fly the best so far even though i traded out of it so quickly..

 

[Doobs789]

Quote from cdcaveman:

i like the MA 00/50/00 fly the best so far even though i traded out of it so quickly..

You getting back in it?

 

[atticus]

Quote from Doobs789:

Yeah definitely inherent vega risk there, but I would still take the later date. On the flip-side, I was looking at some Sep/Oct calendars for a short hold, but decided against it.

I am in the fly at 10.10 risk (irons)

I am at limits but will average higher (in other accounts) if the date is confirmed for Nov cycle.

 

[Doobs789]

Quote from atticus:

I am at limits but will average higher (in other accounts) if the date is confirmed for Nov cycle.

IV spread widened a touch, a little over 300 bp now. I may add to it as we're back at break even, but it's probably more prudent to wait.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from Doobs789:

You getting back in it?

No just doing the hindsight bias thing haha..

Aapl earnings Nov?

 

[Doobs789]

Quote from cdcaveman:

No just doing the hindsight bias thing haha..

Aapl earnings Nov?

It's pretty tough to tell here. I am not that comfortable with where Oct vol is currently.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Doobs789:

IV spread widened a touch, a little over 300 bp now. I may add to it as we're back at break even, but it's probably more prudent to wait.

I wouldn't add here, as tempting as it seems. I'd rather add at 12 than risk adding into a potential Oct release. It's definitely up in the air. It would be ~24 vs. 32 if a certainty.

In 2012 the co. has gone with the fourth Tuesday for every quarter. The longer it goes without a date the more likely it's going to be the 23rd. I have a bud who's a quant at a fund and the desk had a meeting about it today. I wouldn't be surprised if the tenor started to steepen today. We'll see. He's pretty confident of Nov.

 

[Doobs789]

Quote from atticus:

I wouldn't add here, as tempting as it seems. I'd rather add at 12 than risk adding into a potential Oct release. It's definitely up in the air. It would be ~24 vs. 32 if a certainty.

Yeah I'm not sure about based on how tight that spread is. It may not be worth the risk.

 

[atticus]

Quote from Doobs789:

Yeah I'm not sure about based on how tight that spread is. It may not be worth the risk.

I've taken off half at 10.10. So it's a half of net liq (little less) position. I'll mark the dime against the eventual cover. I will add to 100% allocation if the date is Nov cycle.