atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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Quote from diaoptions:

AAPL was up only 0.21% during AH, not enough to affect your butterfly. There must have been some sort of news today that caused the overall market - including AAPL - to jump at about 12:30pm EST. That sort of market behaviour is impossible to predict.

So you were not "right", just lucky.
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Actually, that sort of market behaviour was simple to predict. The Fed announced QE3 at the appointed time for the announcement.

I trade futures and was flat and watching the gyrations. NASDAQ went up 20 points in 2 minutes. Currencies were even worse.
 
Quote from justrading
09-13-12 04:54 PM:

Actually, that sort of market behaviour was simple to predict. The Fed announced QE3 at the appointed time for the announcement.

I trade futures and was flat and watching the gyrations. NASDAQ went up 20 points in 2 minutes. Currencies were even worse.
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Good call ....... 4 1/2 hours later. You make it look so easy, you should have shared your knowledge earlier. :)
 
Quote from diaoptions:

Good call ....... 4 1/2 hours later. You make it look so easy.
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It is not a call. The whole world knew that the announcement was being made at that time. The market behaved exactly as anyone who understands what happens at the time of a Fed QE decision would expect.

I know this thread is about options, but don't you guys care at all about announcements and what can happen?

You want easy? Next Wednesday 20th September at 10:30 a.m ET, the CL futures contract will spike. Like today, I can't tell you whether it will spike up or down, but it will spike.
 
Quote from justrading:

I know this thread is about options, but don't you guys care at all about announcements and what can happen?
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That's what an open forum is for. If you have info that might affect the trades in this thread then YOU should post a heads up before hand.
 
Quote from justrading:

Actually, that sort of market behaviour was simple to predict. The Fed announced QE3 at the appointed time for the announcement.

I trade futures and was flat and watching the gyrations. NASDAQ went up 20 points in 2 minutes. Currencies were even worse.
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I agree.

Also, SCT had a S to L reversal one bar before the announcement.

The "luck' comments are the viewpoint of people old commented upon right at the beginning of the thread.
 
wtf, let's limit the thread to comments about vol-trading. This isn't an SCT thread. DIA, please cut the shit. If you've got a trade to post (glory be thy name) then post it.
 
Quote from diaoptions:

That's what an open forum is for. If you have info that might affect the trades in this thread then YOU should post a heads up before hand.
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I appreciate your point but it has been all the news for days so I would have taken it that everyone knew about it.

An honest suggestion here. Consult an economic calendar before each trading day. The one I have handy is this one, which lists all the routine data releases way in advance. Some will move markets in general, others will move specific currencies and commodities.

http://www.econoday.com/

I have another one somewhere which will includes stuff like release of Fed Minutes, Bernanke's press conferences, when he testifies to congress (yes, that moves the markets too). I don't normally use that because I pick up those dates and times from twitter, but if I can find it I will post it here.

I'm new to options, not new to the markets. I would think that entering an options position 5 minutes before a spike that you are unaware of would probably not be a good thing. For directional traders, it is a potential disaster hence being flat ahead of the announcement.
 
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