atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

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Quote from atticus:

It's still a post-report play. Loss of opp on synthetic vol (time) if I wait for the optimal vol-line. IOW, I still think it will be marginally cheaper to buy here then later.
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Gotcha. But why not trade Dec? Vol should come in after report, albeit not as much. And you're not exposed to as much price risk.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

Gotcha. But why not trade Dec? Vol should come in after report, albeit not as much. And you're not exposed to as much price risk.
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I am already looking at Dec in a slightly wider fly, and working the Feb 550/650/750 fly from ~31.
 
if you average up a little and say they beat by more then the implied move predicts... 710/740/780.. for 1.80... 180 dollar bet with a crazy good pay off.. you could even do it with the 590/560/530 for 2 bucks putting your total bet at 3.80... vol collapses.. even if your wrong you have some time before expiration for a move in your favor.. idk just thinking
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

if you average up a little and say they beat by more then the implied move predicts... 710/740/780.. for 1.80... 180 dollar bet with a crazy good pay off.. you could even do it with the 590/560/530 for 2 bucks putting your total bet at 3.80... vol collapses.. even if your wrong you have some time before expiration for a move in your favor.. idk just thinking
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Sure, but you can't play it large. The allocation is relative to the payoff. Would I play the Feb fly 15x larger in notional? Yeah, if not more so.
 
Quote from atticus:

I am already looking at Dec in a slightly wider fly, and working the Feb 550/650/750 fly from ~31.
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31 and done on the 550-750 in Feb. Short gamma.
 
1 to 4 pay out.. cheap bet on a beat.. and a bet against it not moving at all..

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Quote from Doobs789:

A lot of buyers, might break through 650. But at least that ceiling has held so far.
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Uncomfortable being short D here. But it does seem a little overextended.

EDIT: A little better now that it closed under 650. Looking for a touch of 645 tomorrow.
 
Quote from Doobs789:

Uncomfortable being short D here. But it does seem a little overextended.

EDIT: A little better now that it closed under 650. Looking for a touch of 645 tomorrow.
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Ye of little faith! hold! You make 1.00 on a touch of 646 tomorrow.
 
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