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atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal
- Thread starter atticus
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Quote from cdcaveman:
this seems like a very good plan... very good.... i'm going to look into putting some of these on...
why are you not simultaneously shorting oct? buy ATM straddles sell otm strangles... is this not a good idea?
IV man why don't you post your fills?
Shorting OCT is a suicideâ¦OCT vola for many stocks is < NOV by 1000bp. Any significant move in price will yield a huge loss
Quote from atticus:
He means the slope from Oct to Nov is too steep.
slope.... umm like the juice from oct has falling off the curve in the term structure so much that its not worth the short exposure in it... is that right?
i've modeled trades where you actually buy the front month closer to the money options then sell the back month in a lower ratio..
such that when the underlying breaks out the long front months making up quick for the sold back month... exploiting the risk of the steep slope in the opposite direction./.... is this right? at least in the fact we are talking about the same thing?
its like when you are betting on a big break up.. you think say a company like netflix is going to blow out to the downside at earnings.. buy some otm puts in the earnings expiration and sell some months away .. far enough away that tons of the vol built into the earnings aren't effecting the pricing so much..
Still holding MA (non journal trade) and the AAPL flies. No news on report-date. AAPL does not report future dates on the weekend... so either they post the date tonight or in the month of October. It's looking extremely unlikely that they deliver earnings in the Oct expiration cycle.
Mid went out at 10.80, up 0.55 from entry. I added today in non-journal accounts. Vols went out at 300 favoring Nov.
Mid went out at 10.80, up 0.55 from entry. I added today in non-journal accounts. Vols went out at 300 favoring Nov.
Quote from atticus:
Still holding MA (non journal trade) and the AAPL flies. No news on report-date. AAPL does not report future dates on the weekend... so either they post the date tonight or in the month of October. It's looking extremely unlikely that they deliver earnings in the Oct expiration cycle.
Mid went out at 10.80, up 0.55 from entry. I added today in non-journal accounts. Vols went out at 300 favoring Nov.
check this out..
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/72/aaplsept28670put.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img72/3918/aaplsept28670put.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
corresponding with falling out of this triangle..
<a target='_blank' title='ImageShack - Image And Video Hosting' href='http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/802/aaplasymtriangle928.png/'><img src='http://imageshack.us/a/img802/4110/aaplasymtriangle928.png' border='0'/></a><br>Uploaded with <a target='_blank' href='http://imageshack.us'>ImageShack.us</a>
i totally queefed it and watched the thing transpire and hesitated.. i ended up trying to catch the bounch up with the 670 call.. and lost 37 bucks.. i keep trading small because my vagina tells me to.. and even then my vagina tells me to hesitate even though i know whats happening.. my vagina owned this trade.. fuck haha
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