Attention....Could I have your attention please!

[Rickshaw Man]

It's not. It's a big factor in how positive it has been. Will "such conditions" (lowering rates a large amount and "print-money") continue to be the same in the future?

The back testing of the data goes back to 1993.We have seen three bull and two bear markets during this period. In my opinion that's a pretty good sample....One thing i have noticed over the past 18 years of following the markets. Nothing really changes a lot. There are noticeable and repeatable patterns.

If there is one thing that is a detriment to the markets it's algo program's that react off printed text from the financial media.

 

[Glitch]

I've heard this theory before. I was curious, so I just mocked up two quick tests in Quantacula Studio. I coded one model to purchase SPY at close and hold overnight, selling the next morning. Another to purchase SPY at market open and sell at close. Indeed, the "Hold Overnight" model handily outperformed the "Hold During Open" model. Maybe the market participants get some hope overnight while asleep, causing the gains?

 

[Scataphagos]

One thing i have noticed over the past 18 years of following the markets.

Suggest that might be your shorcoming in thought. "The past 18 years" are a specific period of time. Extrapolating that forward (for reasons already highlighted) might be hazardous to your wealth.

 

[They]

I've heard this theory before. I was curious, so I just mocked up two quick tests in Quantacula Studio. I coded one model to purchase SPY at close and hold overnight, selling the next morning. Another to purchase SPY at market open and sell at close. Indeed, the "Hold Overnight" model handily outperformed the "Hold During Open" model. Maybe the market participants get some hope overnight while asleep, causing the gains?

Hard to see the image but it looks like buy and hold from the 2008 crash (last ten years) outperformed the buy on close and sell on open without all of the commissions during the same period. Something Rickshaw Man might want to consider.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

I've heard this theory before. I was curious, so I just mocked up two quick tests in Quantacula Studio. I coded one model to purchase SPY at close and hold overnight, selling the next morning. Another to purchase SPY at market open and sell at close. Indeed, the "Hold Overnight" model handily outperformed the "Hold During Open" model. Maybe the market participants get some hope overnight while asleep, causing the gains?

Ive always said its the magic index futures. The perfect tool for market manipulation. Thanks for your research.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Traders please read the article below. I will tell you first hand, it goes against everything you hear from the so called gurus. The gurus say go into the overnight session FLAT. Data shows you should do just the opposite. BUY THE CASH CLOSE........ SELL THE CASH OPEN......... RETURNS ARE WELL DOCUMENTED.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html

Rickshaw Man,

Thank you for sharing.

 

[schweiz]

What you say is basically that I am a genius as I make money during the day!

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Hard to see the image but it looks like buy and hold from the 2008 crash (last ten years) outperformed the buy on close and sell on open without all of the commissions during the same period. Something Rickshaw Man might want to consider.

This thread was directed at traders, not investors. Traders tend to use more leverage than investors.

 

[Rickshaw Man]

Suggest that might be your shorcoming in thought. "The past 18 years" are a specific period of time. Extrapolating that forward (for reasons already highlighted) might be hazardous to your wealth.

Sorry to inform you, you must take risks if you want to move forward in the markets. Or just stand on the sidelines where its safe. Its not for everyone.

 

[schweiz]

This thread was directed at traders, not investors. Traders tend to use more leverage than investors.

I daytrade futures and my leverage during the day is 4 times bigger then the overnight leverage due to intraday margin being much lower. So the nightly result should be divided by 4?