Athlonman's EUR/USD TA Journal

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athlonmank8

This is going to be a journal to compile my E/U thoughts, charts, ideas. I will try to update at least every hour, 4th hour, and daily for each candle close. I figure I should probably make better use of this site and make it a bit more productive for myself and others.

Anyways, enough about me. Let's get this started.

I will focus on PA in the form of candle closes, TIME using various cycles I like to watch, patterns and targets (even though I don't typically trade them), trend, and history.

Breakouts and candle closes will be the key signals.

Really a big fan of using MA ribbons for trend, however TLs work well too.

Anyways I'll get started on the Daily here.

Simple analysis so far. I use TOS and Oanda for the daily closes. Oanda counts Sunday as a separate day so I refer to both. Candles are very bullish so far rejecting the 1.35 level 3 times. IMO we'll be seeing higher.

Typical move up = 3 days.
Typical move down = 4 to 5 days.
Typical retrace has been approx 300 pips.
Typical move up 200.

We held the retest of the 1.34. Breakout his key here, but I have a bullish bias at the moment.

2/25 is the estimated "push" date (analysis not shown)

Ledges to watch are 1.38 and 1.425. Watch PA in those areas.

We're nearing the upper part of our resistance line here @ 1.36 with 4 days off the low.
 

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Right now what stands out to me is the Oanda daily chart. Those wicks to me are bullish. If I were to look for an initial target based on risk, I would look for 1.369 as a conservative estimate. We ARE pushing it on time though.
 
Pattern traders are looking at the breakout of a pennant here.

Channel guys are looking at resistance.

1hr closed above the upper TL so I've got a bullish bias.

Shown are the retracement levels from the top. I would probably trade those from the long side on retests. Daily PP's are the dots. I took off yesterday's so it's not clogged up.

Key 50%'s are 1.3580 which was retested and confirmed.

3645 is the other off the top.

1hr candle close has 5 minutes left. Bearish for candle traders currently.
 

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Quote from athlonmank8:



1hr candle close has 5 minutes left. Bearish for candle traders currently.
More...

3 hours down after the reversal. offered 1.5R or just over 20 pips. Took the reversal long here on the 5 min hoping for a bounce to new highs. Stop under 659. 1.5 is usually the max you'll see.

Fill was @ 1.35718. Looking for about 8 pips or so. Crucial we get some green on the 1hr.

Bearish candle was confirmed @ 866. Signal was at 93.
 
Quote from athlonmank8:

Stop moved to 69 for 3 pips risk. Out for a walk now. A little upset I missed that short :). Usually I don't trade off hours.
More...

Added more @ 756. Broke the 15 min TL and the swing high. Looking to see how this 1hr closes before I add more.
 
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