Asian Financial Crisis Part 2: China's Debt Bomb

vanzandt said:
Know what's interesting(?), and I was going to mention this earlier.... but Yum China (YUMC) hit a 52 week low today. I have followed/traded this stock forever. Bad sign for China.
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Dude, is YUMC in any way related to YUM? I played this stock way back in the days. I should have bought 10,000 shares and HODL, but no, NOT THIS NOOB! Just like when I bought AMZN at $60 only to bail out with a measly profit, so many good opportunities gone down the drain. :banghead:

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schizo said:
Dude, is YUMC in any way related to YUM? I played this stock way back in the days. I should have bought 10,000 shares and HODL, but no, NOT THIS NOOB! Just like when I bought AMZN at $60 only to bail out with a measly profit, so many good opportunities gone down the drain. :banghead:

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It's Pizza Hut, KFC, and Taco Bell in China. KFC and Taco Bell kick ass, Pizza Hut has been a problem for several years now. And yes it is part of YUM, but it was spun off about 8 years ago and it's a totally separate operation. The performance of YUMC has no effect on YUM's quarterly results, unless they own a bunch of shares which I'm not sure about as I don't really follow YUM enough to know, but I'm sure there is quite a bit of cross-pollenization and economies of scale in their supply chains.

I have not looked at YUMC in over a year or so, so the sell-off might be nothing but typical market noise, or it could be due to some bad top line results. If that were the case, making the case that the average Chinese up and comer is feeling a pinch is not a hard inference to arrive at. They were opening like one KFC and Taco Bell per day a year or so ago. Apparently the demand was there.

But now you've sent me down a rabbit hole, why is it hitting $37? Is SBUX next?
 
vanzandt said:
But now you've sent me down a rabbit hole, why is it hitting $37? Is SBUX next?
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Chinese boycotting American companies. On that note, I think it was actually a smart thing that YUM spun off its Chinese operation. But you know what? If you've been to any of the Far East countries (Japan, Korea, and China), you would know the younger generations are obsessed with the western culture. I doubt that will change any time soon.
 
schizo said:
Chinese boycotting American companies. On that note, I think it was actually a smart thing that YUM spun off its Chinese operation. But you know what? If you've been to any of the Far East countries (Japan, Korea, and China), you would know the younger generations are obsessed with the western culture. I doubt that will change any time soon.
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Yeah. I guess that hasn't changed. One time I was in Tokyo, riding (the worlds cleanest) trains--- I get on and there's this small group of 30 or 40 YO's all dressed like gangster bikers, and they were probably the most diametrically opposed polar opposites of real bikers you have ever seen. They look at me and smile, and give me this sheepish wave. You had to be there, but these cats, if I pulled out a beer bottle which I'm sure I had in one of my pockets and broke it as I pointed it in their direction... would have jumped off the train in fear at the next stop.
 
vanzandt said:
I agree... but they seem to enjoy Taco Bell, and its blaaaahhhh.
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Taco Bell is enjoyable once a week or so. Pizza Hut is enjoyable in negative time frames. I.E., never and a day. (Sorry, I just hate that product, hehe).
 
nothing conspiratorial about in qsr sector. yum china and mcd china spin off were to unlock shareholder value, otherwise it would be just an eps number rather than price earnings.

the operators hold the real estate leases and/or stores, they can't go public unless they are spin-off or switch allegiances. if the franchising fees are too high, they will create a new brand and try to go public.

work at taco bell and pizza hut part time when i was in college, never touch their food ever again.
 
vanzandt said:
Yeah. I guess that hasn't changed. One time I was in Tokyo, riding (the worlds cleanest) trains--- I get on and there's this small group of 30 or 40 YO's all dressed like gangster bikers, and they were probably the most diametrically opposed polar opposites of real bikers you have ever seen. They look at me and smile, and give me this sheepish wave. You had to be there, but these cats, if I pulled out a beer bottle which I'm sure I had in one of my pockets and broke it as I pointed it in their direction... would have jumped off the train in fear at the next stop.
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Japan was one of the best trips ever. A blend of “techie” and weirdness, and a well-developed society where you couldn't read anything, so you had to figure things out on your own. I loved it
 
Overnight said:
Taco Bell is enjoyable once a week or so. Pizza Hut is enjoyable in negative time frames. I.E., never and a day. (Sorry, I just hate that product, hehe).
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Find a Del Taco. For that category, they are 10X better than Taco Bell. And a little cheaper.
 
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