As recession fears calm, a Morgan Stanley managing director explains why we're only in the ‘first in

Any kind of financial opinionating out to 2021 is useless - too long for traders, too short for investors, too vague for everyone. But it might drum up some churn, or frighten some wannabe investors to hand over their money to fund managers.
 
dozu888 said:
oh well... sell off coming soon.... folks pay attention, this is what I mean by how my boys play the market.

remember - ALL news is FAKE news.
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Its fake in a sense that most people don't recognise but not useless.

The object of news media is to attract, not inform. The aim of the game is to win reads / views / clicks / likes / shares / papers sold / books sold. The last thing a journalist wants to do is give their audience the last word in financial analysis: because what are they going to sell tomorrow?

But not useless. The levels of news about e.g Bitcoin, Tesla, WeWork, and dare I say it?...impeachment, certainly tell us all about things that are in motion below the surface.
 
dozu888 said:
not really - the trend is still up.... but along the way my boys need to shake, and usually with a few bullish articles among popular finance sites they start the distribution to lock in some profits and then knock it down a few levels.

who knows... it's impossible to read tops so might as well don't bother.... tops are decided by secret meetings.
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In my simple opinion it's about odds and capability.

Who am I as a trader in this market? I am regular old alone guy with one brain. My odds of selling at the top and buying at the bottom are low. I am NOT SMART enough to get it right consistently over time.

So where does high probability stand with me? I follow the market either way it go. Trade the trend. The market is clearly upwards, I AM a complete Dumbass to ever go short now. I mean a complete dumbass.

Maybe I'm missing something, but not sure why the reason to sell the market here. Just wait until it breaks lower and lower, and then go short.
 
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Lol, I have been seeing this types of "the sky is falling" articles since 2010. And my conclusion is still the same since 2010..... Long and Strong S&P500 index, buy buy buy buy
 
SimpleMeLike said:
In my simple opinion it's about odds and capability.

Who am I as a trader in this market? I am regular old alone guy with one brain. My odds of selling at the top and buying at the bottom are low. I am NOT SMART enough to get it right consistently over time.

So where does high probability stand with me? I follow the market either way it go. Trade the trend. The market is clearly upwards, I AM a complete Dumbass to ever go short now. I mean a complete dumbass.

Maybe I'm missing something, but not sure why the reason to sell the market here. Just wait until it breaks lower and lower, and then go short.
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SimpleMeLike - Nice post. Good to know I'm as dumb as you are........ but the sad thing is I wasn't always........
 
tomorton said:
SimpleMeLike - Nice post. Good to know I'm as dumb as you are........ but the sad thing is I wasn't always........
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Yes indeed tomoroton,

It is the same with day trading as well. I always feel weird and stupid and uncomfortable selling tops and buying bottoms. I am from the show me state, "show me what you wanna do market, and I follow you".
 
Overnight said:
The trend is still up but the sell off is coming soon... Really. That is your professional assessment? And I am a terrible trader?
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When the big boys start telling us retail to buy, then yes generally the top is in and there trying to sucker retail in at the high so they can sneak out of the back door.

In 2007, 1 of my mates, was giving investing buy into housing advice right at the top of the market before the 2008 disaster, I was like WTF, he bought into it and bought 20 properties 2years later bankrupt.

CNBC the same, always bet against them.
 
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