As If Bear Has Not Been Screwed Enough - Now They Want To Castrate Him!

[shortie]

Quote from madmaxer:

Dear traders,

Why so much discussion of whats going to happen tomorrow, next week or whatever.

Its so simple. If you are typically a counter trend trader, Then I think we are right around a semi good setup here. Do you agree, or I am hallucinating ?

Can this hit your stop?, YES of course. Should you avoid taking it if you see a sign of weakness ? IMHO you should not. Come on , whats the purpose of trading? You see a setup , evaluate it, and take it.. some works some don't.
I much prefer to take it and lose rather than not taking it and watch the damn thing fall later....

Thats all...

good point. one can always wait for a better setup but once you see the one that is good enough you need to take it otherwise the money sits idle.

 

[S2007S]

spy etf up 16 out of the last 18 days.

today makes it 10 days in a row!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Imagine if the s$p was down 10 days in a row, they would probably issue another trillion dollar stimulus package!!!!


Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
10-Mar-10 114.51 115.28 114.41 114.97 185,855,200 114.97
9-Mar-10 113.93 114.99 113.87 114.46 154,438,200 114.46
8-Mar-10 114.26 114.52 114.07 114.27 114,537,200 114.27
5-Mar-10 113.37 114.34 113.10 114.25 176,053,800 114.25
4-Mar-10 112.45 112.80 112.03 112.64 135,539,800 112.64
3-Mar-10 112.49 112.97 112.02 112.30 150,635,700 112.30
2-Mar-10 112.37 112.74 112.00 112.20 160,937,400 112.20
1-Mar-10 111.20 112.00 111.17 111.89 147,559,000 111.89
26-Feb-10 110.77 111.12 110.11 110.74 173,453,100 110.74
25-Feb-10 109.24 110.75 108.94 110.67 259,105,900 110.67
24-Feb-10 110.14 111.00 109.86 110.82 176,225,600 110.82
23-Feb-10 110.86 111.20 109.52 109.81 207,034,900 109.81
22-Feb-10 111.55 111.58 110.83 111.16 132,182,700 111.16
19-Feb-10 110.62 111.57 110.36 111.14 215,599,300 111.14
18-Feb-10 110.08 111.14 110.04 110.91 193,068,400 110.91
17-Feb-10 110.27 110.41 109.74 110.26 168,627,700 110.26
16-Feb-10 108.86 109.85 107.82 109.74 157,023,900 109.74
12-Feb-10 106.99 108.10 106.51 108.04 304,344,600 108.04

 

[shortie]

Quote from S2007S:

spy etf up 16 out of the last 18 days.

today makes it 10 days in a row!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Imagine if the s$p was down 10 days in a row, they would probably issue another trillion dollar stimulus package!!!!

....

wake me up with we are up 16 days in a row

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

wake me up with we are up 16 days in a row

So you are no longer short?

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

interesting study:

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/

"This study gets off to a bit of a slow start, but then there appear to be solidly bearish implications for up to several weeks out. Even as much as 4-5 weeks out the % winners is exceptionally low, as are the win/loss ratio, the profit factor and the average trade."

Quote from noddyboy:

So you are no longer short?

i am short and i am in pain . i will try to hang in there. the charts tell me the odds are very good for a sell-off. what's is happening may be actually consistent with the above study. it looks like one should have a short bias for a month, but the payoff may not be huge and not necessarily instantaneous. i note that the above study only looks at one indicator: call-put ratio. other charts only strengthen it i believe.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

i am short and i am in pain . i will try to hang in there. the charts tell me the odds are very good for a sell-off. what's is happening may be actually consistent with the above study. it looks like one should have a short bias for a month, but the payoff may not be huge and not necessarily instantaneous. i note that the above study only looks at one indicator: call-put ratio. other charts only strengthen it i believe.

if the vix hits a low and then another low the next day, how many data points go into the chart? Trying to understand the significance of the study...

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

i am short and i am in pain . i will try to hang in there. the charts tell me the odds are very good for a sell-off. what's is happening may be actually consistent with the above study. it looks like one should have a short bias for a month, but the payoff may not be huge and not necessarily instantaneous. i note that the above study only looks at one indicator: call-put ratio. other charts only strengthen it i believe.

I am surprised by the persistence of the indicator. Without looking I would have expected a peak at 5 days. Isn't it suspect that a put call on any one day can predict 25 days out?

 

[shortie]

Quote from noddyboy:

if the vix hits a low and then another low the next day, how many data points go into the chart? Trying to understand the significance of the study...

you meant call/put, not vix. i would guess that both data points have to go in. it is not just call/put hitting 40day low, he also dictates SPX not to rise too much, hence, "unjustifiable call/put".

Quote from noddyboy:

I am surprised by the persistence of the indicator. Without looking I would have expected a peak at 5 days. Isn't it suspect that a put call on any one day can predict 25 days out?

maybe it is surprising, maybe it is not. as i said in the beginning of this thread, recently many times VIX would year low and SPY would put in a top that is good for a month or so. substitute VIX for call/put in the above study and you may start believing in the persistence of his signal.

 

[William Rennick]

Shorty, the Noah of ET. Keep building the Ark my son, some day it will rain and those mocking your prediction shall be swept away.

White Dove out

 

[shortie]

Quote from William Rennick:

Shorty, the Noah of ET. Keep building the Ark my son, some day it shall rain and those mocking your prediction shall be swept away.

White Dove out

i don't know if i should laugh or cry. but i guess nobody said it should be easy.