As If Bear Has Not Been Screwed Enough - Now They Want To Castrate Him!

Market Next Week

  • Bull

    Votes: 31 38.3%

  • Flat

    Votes: 11 13.6%

  • Bear

    Votes: 19 23.5%

  • I don't care about the market, just SAVE BEAR's NUTs!

    Votes: 20 24.7%
  • Total voters
    81
Oh, Snap! I thought this thread was about stock market bears.

One thing for sure... this bounce has [figuratively] "castrated' (well, maybe just cornholed) .. some high profile bears and short sellers.
 
an interesting point is that SPY, XLF and QQQQ are all within striking distance from their multi-year high. I am thinking that this may signify the importance of such a level.

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Quote from Petsamo:

Iceland may be the next Greece.

"Voters in tiny Iceland defied their parliament and international pressure, resoundingly rejecting a $5.3 billion plan to repay Britain and the Netherlands for debts spawned by the collapse of an Icelandic bank."

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/03/07/general-eu-iceland-financial-crisis_7413405.html

You guys think this is significant enough to sink the markets on Monday?
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The markets will ignore this just like all other news, it's impossible for a market to trade negative on this type of news when there is worthless monopoly money supporting it, also keep in mind that tomorrow is Monday and that automatically without a doubt signals a close to the upside.
 
I wouldnt even bother analyzing the market until the fed stops meddling. the government has messed up this system so badly its almost worthless. The price signals dont mean anything. [/QUOTE]

Agree with you completely. They made things worse than better. Time will tell and although things with the markets look okay, people are not looking at the bigger picture. When taxes and inflation are much higher, people will only then realize how screwed they got by the actions of the FRB and the gov't.
 
Quote from JamesVU2000:

I wouldnt even bother analyzing the market until the fed stops meddling. the government has messed up this system so badly its almost worthless. The price signals dont mean anything.
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Exactly, that's what so many fail to understand, most are totally ignoring the fact that the federal reserve involvement in the market is what has created this massive so called false recovery. They also don't understand that easy money policies during the time of greenspan to help get the economy out recession due to the dot com fallout is what created the housing bubble and credit crisis. The system is completely upside down, the programs in place right now to turn around the economy will soon fail once taken away. The 5%+ GDP is nothing but an illusion that of course so many believe is sustainable. If you want to witness true global economic behaviour take the stimulus out the market, stop all programs, get rid of the easy money policies that are just going to create bigger asset bubbles moving forward, withdraw unlimited unemployment benefit and stop the fucking money printing. These programs are going to cause more trouble than good going forward, the global ecenomy is headed towards even greater asset bubbles moving forward.
 
The 5%+ GDP is nothing but an illusion :

Wrong. Very little of the 3 trill. hit in 09. The 5% GDP was inventory replacement and Manufactures coming back on line, cranking up their plants last quarter and 1st Quarter of this year.

2010, most of the 3 trill...40% should hit the system and the rest 2011, 2012.

I doubt that the 5% GDP 1st quarter is sustainable, but it wasn't an illusion.

The only Illusion out there is the Markets. And that is usally the case in up and down markets.

Question is, does second quarter GDP drop to negitive, or hold around 2% OR 3%.

The pulse I get from the "Real Street": the guys i deal with are producing a little more than last year, they are taking down more profits with less workforce and are expanding, buying up the weaker competition and spending very little money on Capital Equipment if they don't have to. (Most are putting that off until the 4th Quarter of this year, when they will splurg and get the Tax Write off before 2011's Tax Hike.)

However, the Health Care Bill is one small bomb to drop. I have not yet heard what the guys I deal with will do for certain if its passed. They are all in the wait and see mode.

At least within the Private Manufacturing, Private OEM world, I hear a little more optimism as far as their companies/Factor's overall profits go. But they are still nervous with Obama and the Dems in control.

But I hear no "Illusion" on their production or Profit projections, which really only go out a Quarter.
 
there must be ton of shorts trapped by Fri gap. they may well be right about the market tumbling soon, but if they don't have deep pockets they could be shaken out by the market that will try to hurt as many as it can.

To shake out many underwater shorts SPY needs to get above 115.14 (the previous top and where the stops are). this is less than 1% away. a gapUP would be a perfect entry to short into the close me thinks.
 
Shortie - don't forget the VIX is in a long-term downtrend. That would imply that we need to make new VIX lows by a few points before hitting the top in stocks. E.g. S&P at 1200, VIX at 15-16 is a quite feasible as the next short-term top. Shorting at 1130 could be painful if that happens.
 
Quote from shortie:

there must be ton of shorts trapped by Fri gap.
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Interesting market action.

These are very tricky trading conditions with all the mixed data. ISM/new orders rocketed up from the fall off the cliff in Feb 09' but unemployment is skyhigh, CCI very low, and the credit markets sluggish. The inflation vs deflationary outlook also figures into the equation as investors look for safety and return. DEFLATION---prices plummet. INFLATION and anything but bonds or cash will be O.K.

The FED has stated they will print to doomsday so inflation seems a certainty although as always "This time is different."

Nimble traders certainly have an advantage in this market as we are subject to continued volatility, Hence my position: With all the mixed economic data and uncertainty VIX is too low which means we are ripe for a spike in volatility. Now the question remains is this gonna happen above or below 1150 in the ES. It almost seems now the most money will change hands ABOVE 1150 as all the money comes streaming in off the sidelines to chase the "New Bull Market." But let price action and volume confirm trend which has been up since 3/09, and again since 2/8/10.


I had been of the belief we would turn around at this level--i.e. below previous high and then perhaps retest the 1050 level. I do not know when but I know for almost certainty we will pullback. Whether it is above or below 1150 in the ES we'll soon find out.
 
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