Aronson's Bogus Trading Tests

[volpunter]

You are a blatant liar and very sneaky individual.

Your point 5 is the ENTIRE CULPRIT of this issue:

Live calls are the ONLY way (aside audited broker statements) to receive reliable and trustworthy data to verify someone's trading acumen. Everyone I recall to have criticized TA here on this site always called for live trades/calls.

Show us a place where someone claims to use technical analysis and makes live calls. If the aggregate performance over time is worth the risk taken then you just converted the rest of the world. Of course you say you won't do that (not only because such does not exist) because you don't care what others believe...well...that begs the question then why you write lengthy posts promoting TA. Unless of course you have a commercial interest in doing so...

I don't know who K2 is and it must be a nickname for an ET member that's no longer an active member.

Regardless, there are people that demonstrated TA works outside of Elitetrader.com

These people trade with real money, in front of a live audience, broker platform up on a big screen in an audited trading competition that occurs every years +10 years now. They are traders in today's trading environment.

There's also an academic research study of +5000 Hedged Funds...those that use TA as part of their decision making process although they didn't use it exclusively...they outperform Hedge Funds that did not use TA by +5%.

In contrast, for traders in trading environments prior to 2000...many well known traders that are now retired, fund managers and such have already been discussed here at ET but quickly dismiss because they did such in trading environments different from today's.

Now lets look only at ET members.

An ET member name marketsurfer has posted verified brokerage statements of Timothy Sykes. The statements shows that Sykes is a profitable trader. Sykes does use TA for trade decisions as himself noted at his website, youtube and such.

Sykes does have an inactive account here at ET or did at one time have an account. Simply, if someone tries to dismiss him via saying the proof can not be via an outside source and that it must come from inside ET...

Is B1S2 a profitable trader that uses TA and has posted real-time trades here...I say this only because a few members posted his total track record although I think he should have done such himself per month or per week instead of spending most of his time debating about scaling in/out or arguing with dbphoenix ?

There's also a few short lived trade journals here at ET ranging 1 - 2 months where ET members using TA has consistently posted profitable live calls or brokerage statements. I don't need to posted any direct links to Sykes because we all know how to find him.

Also, I don't need to post direct links to the ES Journal and the Trading PnL Statement threads...they use TA and anyone can do a quick research to get their links.

Yeah, they've all been dismiss because they didn't post profitable trades/statements more than 5 years.

There's many other ET members that used chart analysis and posted profitable live calls or brokerage statements for many years. Yet, they are on record in saying chart analysis is not technical analysis. Therefore, I can't really use them as examples of proof due to the fact they have a different definition of what is TA and do not believe their chart analysis is TA.

Summary, there's proof outside of ET and inside of ET that traders are profitable via TA. The funny issue is that the naysayers dismiss the proof via saying any of the following:

1) No longer an active member

2) He's retired

3) Traders outside of ET do not qualify

4) Broker statements can be faked

5) Live calls are not real

6) Its not audited

7) If its not a code...it can't be verified to work for someone else because its most likely voodoo, luck or just ART.

8) Don't pretend it works until you've used TA more than 5 years and have proof you've been using TA profitable for more than 5 years.

9) Chart Analysis is not TA

10) They don't speak English or live in another country...they don't count.

Note: The biggest TA organization is in Europe.

11) It must be ART if discretionary. Therefore, it can't be tested and verified. Simply, we're only interested in verified TA codes or automation.

Note: Just a sneaky way of the naysayers trying to get access to your code if you're using automation or program or codes to trade profitably.

Whatever

 

[Redneck]

I don't know who K2 is and it must be a nickname for an ET member that's no longer an active member.

If you say so


Something regarding a forest and trees comes to mind

If I said: Howdy WRB

Any though who I might be directing the "howdy" toward



RN

 

[dtrader98]

Some might be interested to listen to this very recent interview with Aronson...
http://bettersystemtrader.com/028-david-aronson/

My takeaway is that he does believe there is merit in TA (in fact, he is still currently using TA based features in his methodologies), however, he also believes that those who tend to follow and promote ancient, non-scientific methods, have been marginalized and are progressively being replaced by more intelligent and modernized quantitative methods (much like astrologers were marginalized by astronomists). I tend to agree with that stance, and think that the main beef many have against TA, is that the huge deluge of subjective literature and promotion of non-scientific methods have done a great disservice to and disillusioned many in the past.

He also commented that his prior approaches to statistical analysis do not work under most data mining type scenarios today... i.e. they applied to random and exhaustive methods in the past, not so much to modern intelligent based searches.

 

[bashatrader]

Reading his book partly was a waste of time. Trying to explain probability and statistics with cartoons is only for commercial purposes. The real problems of trading are with discipline and execution. I could give a system to 100 traders here that I know that it will perform well in the next 5 years and I have such system. The results from the 100 traders will have a distribution with some traders losing a lot and some others making a lot. The results would depend on trader and broker execution, slippage, disciplines, etc. As far as probability and statistics, here is my answer in another thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?posts/4259600/

 

[kut2k2]

Reading his book partly was a waste of time. Trying to explain probability and statistics with cartoons is only for commercial purposes. The real problems of trading are with discipline and execution. I could give a system to 100 traders here that I know that it will perform well in the next 5 years and I have such system. The results from the 100 traders will have a distribution with some traders losing a lot and some others making a lot. The results would depend on trader and broker execution, slippage, disciplines, etc. As far as probability and statistics, here is my answer in another thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?posts/4259600/

"The real problems of trading are with discipline and execution."

I can only assume your trading "system" is a discretionary trading method. Real systematic (aka mechanical) traders don't have these concerns.

So the real problem of trading, discretionary or mechanical, is lack of a consistently profitable trading plan. And if the plan is discretionary (aka non-programmable), then lack of discipline and other concerns come into play.

Re statistics: I agree it is pretty worthless for the main problem (creation of the trading plan), but stats are absolutely vital for validating the plan. Any trading with a plan that hasn't been thoroughly backtested will most likely fail.