ARG - Takeover was Known in Options?

Quote from asiaprop:

I asked how you knew before the fact that ARG call options were a good buy.
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I didn't - I replied with the same answer three times - here's four. The blog showed that the only person who <i>did</i> was "probably" a cheater. That was the point of the blog. That was the point of the Bloomberg article. If I knew the options were a purchase, I would have bought them 'til my head caved in. Then I would have borrowed more, and done it again.

The same thing happened with SEPR, blog here:
http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/09/sepracor-sepr-damn-someone-has-good.html

And PER, blog here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/09/perot-systems-per-sec-says-nice-try.html

PER guy got caught by SEC 3 days later and had profits disgorged.

SEPR guy "voluntarily" busted his trades after our blog. I sent it to the SEC.
 
lol, that was AFTER the fact, and I also pointed that out 3 times. Before the fact, nothing pointed to the purchase being a possible edge. Therefore, there was no point in considering a purchase of those calls before the fact. So, how again did your platform help the generation of trade ideas? I dont care how many floor traders look at it, if you try to sell your services here (which you apparently attempt to do) then I suggest you try to demonstrate how your platform assists in finding an edge not what happened yesterday. I can read that in the newspaper. Just my 2 cents...


Quote from livevol_ophir:

I didn't - I replied with the same answer three times - here's four. The blog showed that the only person who <i>did</i> was "probably" a cheater. That was the point of the blog. That was the point of the Bloomberg article. If I knew the options were a purchase, I would have bought them 'til my head caved in. Then I would have borrowed more, and done it again.

The same thing happened with SEPR, blog here:
http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/09/sepracor-sepr-damn-someone-has-good.html

And PER, blog here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/09/perot-systems-per-sec-says-nice-try.html

PER guy got caught by SEC 3 days later and had profits disgorged.

SEPR guy "voluntarily" busted his trades after our blog. I sent it to the SEC.
More...
 
Quote from asiaprop:

So, how again did your platform help the generation of trade ideas?
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You can see this on the website, but if you really want the details here...

<i>Some</i> of what the application includes:


FEATURES <u>All in real-time</u>:
•<b> Market Tab</b>: Watchlist (Option) Trade Tracker, Top News Stories, S&P 500 Tick Chart
•<b> Stats Tab</b>: Order Flow, Day Largest Trades, Volume by Exch, Net Premium, Net Deltas, Open Interest, OTM calls/puts %, On Offer/Bid %, Calls:Put
•<b> Charts Tab</b>: Advanced Vol Charting (IV30™,60,90,180,360; HV30™,10,20,60,90,180,360), Technicals (custom and built in)
•<b> Options Tab</b>: Interactive Montage, Vol, Historical Vol by Line, OI, Historical OI, Trades, Trades by Strike, Level II, Volume by Line
•<b> Skew Tab</b>: 3D Patent Pending Skew Chart with 2 Year Playback
•<b> Fundamentals Tab</b>: Business & Financial Summary, General, Income Measures, Per Share Data, Ratios
•<b> News Tab</b>: Reuters Key Developments, AP Top Stories, Newswires - By Symbol, Watchlist or All
•<b> Time & Sales Tab</b>: By stock, strike, size, exchange, options, underlying, 2 years history, pre-market, after-market
•<b> Earnings & Dividends Tab</b>: Track ATM Vol, ATM Straddles, Underlying price through earnings cycle, vega scalps, front and back spreading
•<b> Calendar Tab</b>: Earnings and Dividends Dates for Watchlist or All, Early exercise, theo updates on earnings
•<b> Mapping Tab</b>: Maps stocks to peers, ETFs and Indices; ETFs/Indices to components
•<b> Watchlist</b>: Volatility alerts, Price alerts; Vol Analytics, Notes, Custom folders
•<b> Ticker</b>: Market Block Trades, 52 wk hi/low IV and price
•<b> Scan Tab</b>: Real-time Scanning:
(1) Earnings: Pre/Post Earnings Vol, Pre/Post Earnings Price Changes
(2) Implied Vol: Rising, Dropping, Exploding, Imploding
(3) IV vs HV: 30,60,90 day comps
(4) Order Flow: ISE Sentiment, Call:Put Ratio, Net Premium, Net Deltas, OTM on Offer, Active Issues, Open Interest
(5) Price: Gainers, Losers
(6) Time Spreads: Month 1, Month 2, Month 3 and several permutations
(7) A lot more...
•<b> Custom Scans</b> (some examples below):
• Find Boxes, Conversions, Reversals, Diagonals, Calendars, etc. trading for less than $___
• Return a list of options with large bid – ask spreads that are trading heavily compared with average option volume
• Find stocks with large implied volatility moves since the open
• Find stocks where the net delta from the option trading is above 50% of the dollar value of the open interest and that have positive net premiums
• Nearly unlimited possibilities
•<b> Custom Data</b> (some examples below):
(1) Real-time
(2) Intervals
(3) EOD
(4) Historical (to 2003)

And more, but that's all I feel like typing at this point...

Demo movie here: http://www.livevolpro.com/help/movies/all_movie_short/all_movie_short.html

I can only list features as listing benefits (beyond the few I crept in the above) is not allowed in finance from a professional trader. Very regulatory based industry. If the benefits aren't apparent from above and the movie, it's not the right platform for you.

In tems of trading ideas on the blog - my rough count was that ~85% are forward looking, the remaining are illustrative backward looking.

Forward looking examples:
CAT (scalping a dividend): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/10/caterpillar-cat-doing-your-homework.html

MDVN (bio-tech vol): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/02/mdvn.html

TLB-BPW "Arb": http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/02/tlb.html

AAPL (earnings vol&skew): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/aapl.html

MJN (understanding a tender with options): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/12/bristol-myers-bmy-mead-johnson-mjn.html

Lots more, but enough already...
 
dude, I dont know which part of my posts you dont understand. I asked a simple question about your ARG post, and so far you could not come up with jack sxxx. Is it really that hard to comment on it? Every kid can read up on your website what you just posted...

From all your posts I conclude you dont really know how to spot an edge. Your portal does not do much more than showing implied vols vs realized vols. Also it shows trades that went through the tapes. So what...you seem to be unable to generate edge from such knowledge and nor does anyone else (I dont blame you, cause this simply does not provide an edge whatsoever).

Variance swaps let one express a view on future realized vol and how the current implieds disagree from one's view of future volatility. Yet nobody ever got rich simply by looking at what level those vols currently are nor how many of the calls and puts printed on the tape.

Please dont suck newbies into your deal by making them believe they can make money simply by knowing where implieds trade and at what level realized vols are. It looks impressive to pick some trades that would have worked out but you fail to show how and why you would have spotted the ones which paid off.

Quote from livevol_ophir:

You can see this on the website, but if you really want the details here...

<i>Some</i> of what the application includes:


FEATURES <u>All in real-time</u>:
•<b> Market Tab</b>: Watchlist (Option) Trade Tracker, Top News Stories, S&P 500 Tick Chart
•<b> Stats Tab</b>: Order Flow, Day Largest Trades, Volume by Exch, Net Premium, Net Deltas, Open Interest, OTM calls/puts %, On Offer/Bid %, Calls:Put
•<b> Charts Tab</b>: Advanced Vol Charting (IV30™,60,90,180,360; HV30™,10,20,60,90,180,360), Technicals (custom and built in)
•<b> Options Tab</b>: Interactive Montage, Vol, Historical Vol by Line, OI, Historical OI, Trades, Trades by Strike, Level II, Volume by Line
•<b> Skew Tab</b>: 3D Patent Pending Skew Chart with 2 Year Playback
•<b> Fundamentals Tab</b>: Business & Financial Summary, General, Income Measures, Per Share Data, Ratios
•<b> News Tab</b>: Reuters Key Developments, AP Top Stories, Newswires - By Symbol, Watchlist or All
•<b> Time & Sales Tab</b>: By stock, strike, size, exchange, options, underlying, 2 years history, pre-market, after-market
•<b> Earnings & Dividends Tab</b>: Track ATM Vol, ATM Straddles, Underlying price through earnings cycle, vega scalps, front and back spreading
•<b> Calendar Tab</b>: Earnings and Dividends Dates for Watchlist or All, Early exercise, theo updates on earnings
•<b> Mapping Tab</b>: Maps stocks to peers, ETFs and Indices; ETFs/Indices to components
•<b> Watchlist</b>: Volatility alerts, Price alerts; Vol Analytics, Notes, Custom folders
•<b> Ticker</b>: Market Block Trades, 52 wk hi/low IV and price
•<b> Scan Tab</b>: Real-time Scanning:
(1) Earnings: Pre/Post Earnings Vol, Pre/Post Earnings Price Changes
(2) Implied Vol: Rising, Dropping, Exploding, Imploding
(3) IV vs HV: 30,60,90 day comps
(4) Order Flow: ISE Sentiment, Call:Put Ratio, Net Premium, Net Deltas, OTM on Offer, Active Issues, Open Interest
(5) Price: Gainers, Losers
(6) Time Spreads: Month 1, Month 2, Month 3 and several permutations
(7) A lot more...
•<b> Custom Scans</b> (some examples below):
• Find Boxes, Conversions, Reversals, Diagonals, Calendars, etc. trading for less than $___
• Return a list of options with large bid – ask spreads that are trading heavily compared with average option volume
• Find stocks with large implied volatility moves since the open
• Find stocks where the net delta from the option trading is above 50% of the dollar value of the open interest and that have positive net premiums
• Nearly unlimited possibilities
•<b> Custom Data</b> (some examples below):
(1) Real-time
(2) Intervals
(3) EOD
(4) Historical (to 2003)

And more, but that's all I feel like typing at this point...

Demo movie here: http://www.livevolpro.com/help/movies/all_movie_short/all_movie_short.html

I can only list features as listing benefits (beyond the few I crept in the above) is not allowed in finance from a professional trader. Very regulatory based industry. If the benefits aren't apparent from above and the movie, it's not the right platform for you.

In tems of trading ideas on the blog - my rough count was that ~85% are forward looking, the remaining are illustrative backward looking.

Forward looking examples:
CAT (scalping a dividend): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/10/caterpillar-cat-doing-your-homework.html

MDVN (bio-tech vol): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/02/mdvn.html

TLB-BPW "Arb": http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/02/tlb.html

AAPL (earnings vol&skew): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/aapl.html

MJN (understanding a tender with options): http://livevol.blogspot.com/2009/12/bristol-myers-bmy-mead-johnson-mjn.html

Lots more, but enough already...
More...
 
Quote from asiaprop:

dude, I dont know which part of my posts you dont understand. I asked a simple question about your ARG post, and so far you could not come up with jack sxxx.
More...

you're funny... kinda lame and childish, but funny. I read your posts to other people and you get the same reaction, you argue a lot. You've got some juice for sure...
 
If I were you I would not be so noisy, you got NOTHING to show for.

None of your posts has ever shown you have a grasp to put on trades with edge. For starters, what you try to sell can be done by anyone even on a spreadsheet. Use a historical options data provider, retrieve historical options prices of the strikes that were closest to the spot (some chose the forwards), get spot levels, dividend yields, and rates as well and back out the implied vols at each historical data point. Interpolate between the out and in the money options that were closest to the strike. Realized vols I dont even comment on as its much simpler. However, I now archive all the live-data.

You try to sell some simple tools for 100 dollars per month, laughable...and suck beginners into this cheap deal by showing them how they could have made 18:1 AFTER THE FACT!!!!

Empty pants. Enough said!!!

Quote from livevol_ophir:

you're funny... kinda lame and childish, but funny. I read your posts to other people and you get the same reaction, you argue a lot. You've got some juice for sure...
More...
 
livevol, can you make sense of the current options game in Medivation?

MDVN

I know fundamentally, the drug trial is garbage and the technology is crap too IMHO, but is there any odd behaviour aside from the very expensive Calls and Puts that you can detect in the next months option series?

Its virtually impossible to make alot on this short without tail risk.

Thoughts?
 
lol

(sorry)


Quote from psytrade:

livevol, can you make sense of the current options game in Medivation?

MDVN

I know fundamentally, the drug trial is garbage and the technology is crap too IMHO, but is there any odd behaviour aside from the very expensive Calls and Puts that you can detect in the next months option series?

Its virtually impossible to make alot on this short without tail risk.

Thoughts?
More...
 
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