Ares

Looks like I should have stayed with the daily 1.618 retracement on HOKU.

The 1.618 I had was 8.45.
The low of the day is 8.42 with a close of 8.45.

In the recent past, the 1.618 worked well with the RSI(2) being oversold and the 50ma as support.

Will the daily 1.618 work better this time with the RSI(2) and Stochastics oversold?

Is it better to wait for at least 3 down day's before getting the 1.618 retracement as a bottom fishing strategy?

I wonder which one will hold tommorow as support:

0.618 of the daily swing at 8.03?

1.618 of yesterday's candle at 7.88?

RTL between the 50ma and 200ma?

RTL near the 200ma?

Retracement of the 5 and or 15 minute opening range?

Attached is a HOKU chart with speculations:
 

Attachments

So far HOKU seemed to have used the entry near the 1.38 retracement at 8.08 (current LOD is 8.07) and the 0.382 extension at 8.42 for profit target.

Will traders start adding to their position now at 8.20 [(0.618 of recent 5 minute swing low of 8.07 and swing high of 8.42 - it recently hit 8.28 (the 5 minute 0.382 retracement)]?

Will HOKU still give a chance for buyers to get in at 8.03/7.88 buy target or will buyers get left out?
 
My observation on HOKU this morning using the 5 minute chart, 1 minute chart, level 2 with time and sales.

The 5 minute chart had at least 3 red candles near the open followed by a green candle above the previous 5 minute candle's close (Bottom fishing strategy).

The 1 minute chart blew through the 1.618 of the 5 minute opening range at 8.27.

It looked like it had panic selling at 8.16 but my next target was the 2.618 of the 5 minute opening range at 8.11

After the "rush" of red at the time and sales at 8.10 (creating a big red volume outside the 1 minute bollinger band) it slowed down towards the daily 1.382 retracement at 8.08 (inside the 1 minute bollinger band). (Selling volume capitulation)

Low of day so far is 8.07.
 
I'm currently watching LEND - a stock that meets the criteria of being above $5 and trading an average volume of 1,000,000.
 
LEND

In at 5.03
protective mental stop at 4.83
met 50 cent profit goal of 5.53 (it went as high as 5.69)
mental trailing stop at 5.33
got hit
watching the 1 minute chart and time and sales for price action.
watching 1 minute stochastics for overbought conditions.
2000 shares at 6.20?
what was that for?
It hit my trailing stop and I'm still not out - why?
I'm waiting for the 1 minute stochastics to get overbought.
In retrospect, I should have gotten ready to sell when it hit my mental stop and sold into strength while it bounced up or forced in the bid when the 1 minute made a lower low (below 5.51)
Now it looks like the 1 minute is showing a double bottom with bigger volume at the left leg.
Will it break the recovery rally?

Larger volume just broke the lower tight bollinger band.
Break down?
Should I cut my loss now before it heads down to the next lower level?

My wife just told me that I should have exited at my trailing stop loss.

But what do I do now?

My wife just explained to me that I got greedy and should have exited at a profit already.

Currently it's at $5.
Should I sell?

My wife is out at 4.92 (on paper)
I'm still holding.

Just realized that my second stop loss (protective stop at 4.83) got hit too.

Why am I still holding?
I'm HOPING for it to bounce.

My wife just told me - don't trade on hope - be more mechanical.

Looking at the 5 minute downtrend channel, it looks like it had a volatility expansion at 5.01
Failed to break out at 5.69
Failed to traverse at 4.62 (big red volume)
Will it have a breakout when the 4.90 high is taken out?

Just created a lower low (below 4.62)

Just hit my next buy target at 4.25 and bounced from there.

I left the computer and had a chat with my wife.

She said that no matter how accurate I am able to figure out the support areas but if I cannot exit at a profit - it's useless.

She reminded me that the emotion problem (FEAR,HOPE, and GREED) that I had few years back is being repeated again (even on paper).

She told me that I should just teach ( at least it doesn't involve emotion).

How can I teach when I can't even follow my own trading plan?

I just feel like giving up already.

Luckily, today's trade is only on paper.
 
LEND

Testing if I could control my greed factor today.

On paper, I'm out at 6.22 (retreating for a better entry - hopefully won't get left out)
 

Attachments

Got back in on LEND yesterday at 6.30 as a momentum trade.

Saw it spike past $7 in a few minutes after I called it out.
It looked like it was going higher (because the 1 minute chart showed a recent breakout of a tight bollinger band on volume,pulled back on lower volume and started going back up again).
The person I was chatting with asked me if $7 is a sell.

I said that it looks like it is still going higher but I have to get off the computer now to spend some time with my family (currently, my day off is Thurday and Friday).

We planned to go out that day.

On paper, I got out on a rush at 6.99 :(
(because we had to get ready - my priority)

Later, when I checked the monitor, the price went as high as 8.09 :eek:

Although it was not real money - it made me feel better to see what I saw - I just really have to keep that emotion in check.

I hope to get better in controlling my emotions and to improve my skills as I spend more screen time and learning from more experienced traders while saving some money for capital.

As far as I know, paper trading can not replace the emotional experience of trading real money but at least it is cheaper:D

These are just some of the links that provide insight on how other traders view LEND:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1555279&highlight=lend#post1555279

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1555051&highlight=lend#post1555051

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1554090&highlight=lend#post1554090

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1553538&highlight=lend#post1553538

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1553330&highlight=lend#post1553330

What happens when bottom fishers and shorts cover at the same time near the same price?

Even better, what happens when bottom fishers add up to their position, shorts turning around (and going long), new buyers coming in the picture and momentum traders jumping in?
 
Does Elite Trader have a feature that would send me an e-mail alert to the most recent information on how traders view the stock I'm interested in?

ie: LEND = new thread started (like the technical analysis section)= new reply to post = subscribe = send alert to e-mail.
 
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