Are you using FRS or Elliott wave theory or other old strategies for stock trading?
Are you using Fibonacci retracement strategy?
- Thread starter Lloyd W. Coutee
- Start date
"Old" strategies?
I'm not using Fibonacci levels (because I've never seen any more than anecdotal, cherry-picked evidence that they have any more significance than randomly-drawn line levels, though I've seen plenty of independent, objective, academic evidence that they don't); nor Elliott Wave theory (because by the time you allow for "extensions", "alterations", "truncations" and the interpretation of all of this stuff that Elliott adherents have dreamed up to be able to justify their perspectives, there isn't a single chart in the world that an Elliott Wave enthusiast can't fit in with his existing preconceptions).
But I use some older techniques than those, relating to price-bar patterns and levels of support/resistance.
I'm not using Fibonacci levels (because I've never seen any more than anecdotal, cherry-picked evidence that they have any more significance than randomly-drawn line levels, though I've seen plenty of independent, objective, academic evidence that they don't); nor Elliott Wave theory (because by the time you allow for "extensions", "alterations", "truncations" and the interpretation of all of this stuff that Elliott adherents have dreamed up to be able to justify their perspectives, there isn't a single chart in the world that an Elliott Wave enthusiast can't fit in with his existing preconceptions).
But I use some older techniques than those, relating to price-bar patterns and levels of support/resistance.
I think you'll find you have better luck trading by the moon. Most turns in the market usually occur on the full or new moon and are either confirmed or denied on the quarters. So for instance, Thanksgiving holiday 2015 in USA occured right around the full moon, so I would expect the trend on Monday the first full day after the full moon to establish a trend which should contiunue unitil the quarter and then you should find either support or resistance (depending on how it goes Monday) right around the half moon which occurs on Thurs Dec 3.
The problem with fibonocci is astute traders tend to take their profitis and put on large positions on the other side before the complete fibonocci retracement has occured.
The problem with fibonocci is astute traders tend to take their profitis and put on large positions on the other side before the complete fibonocci retracement has occured.
A few month ago I did a pretty extensive analysis of intraday pullback retracement level for CL (Crude Oil futures). From the top of my head, there was over 100,000 pullbacks in that study. The resulting distribution was quite flat, its mode exactly 50%. There was no edge for using any retracement level on a systematic manner (exit on retest of prior leg extreme for win, stop placement prior leg start with or without margin, doesn't matter - but of course, some combinations are worse than others).
I didn't find it too surprising ... like any other technique or tool in trading, what matter most is identifying when to use it, when to fade it, and when to ignore it.
I didn't find it too surprising ... like any other technique or tool in trading, what matter most is identifying when to use it, when to fade it, and when to ignore it.
especially when to fade it
About a year and a half ago when things were still trending higher, nflx, tsla, lnkd, bidu, just to name a few would have large up moves a few minutes after the open. Not every day, not all on the same day, but often enough. I would make money buying the dips on these moves. Then usually after 3 or 4 points the world's most determined seller would come in. Just kept relentlessly offering lower. I would give back my morning trying to buy the dips. Waiting a point or even 2 to try to reenter. I had heard of fibonacci, but never really used it or studied it. I knew the retracements were about 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3. I noticed that these down moves would always turn at about the 2/3 retracement area. I started waiting to buy around this level. It worked. So, naturally I read up on fibonacci and got the exact retracements...61.8. I started calculating these retracements by hand. Once I recognized the the aggressive seller, I was able to start shorting near the tops of moves, and cover at the 61.8 and turn around and go long again. Now I can just draw them with the software I use. 2nd retest of that level fails more often that not and are good short opps.
I would probably not be a believer either if I hadn't discovered it through pain.
This is all intraday and works both up or down moves. I can not speak for longer time frames.
I would probably not be a believer either if I hadn't discovered it through pain.
This is all intraday and works both up or down moves. I can not speak for longer time frames.