Are you sick of technical analysis? I am...
- Thread starter retaildaytrader
- Start date
No. the charts are the past by definition-- if they were the blueprints--the future would be easily read-- it isnt--UNLESS you are deluded.----charts tell you what did happen, like a film, not what is going to happen.
man, i had no clue this wrong way thinking was so ingrained--- i guess we can blame the PC anf free charts on FX platforms for sending all these peeps down the wrong trail.
Trolls... post unsupported assertions, are denigrating.... ok, straight to ignore, I can't believe I came to this thread twice......
What happened in the past is relevant information. For instance, what if you could tell when and at what price a majority of large traders entered their positions? That becomes a significant level: below that in the right context you can expect certain reactions reflected in price. Above that, observing volume, you can also make certain inferences. This is rudimentary.
I'm curious to know if you're marketsurfer, as someone mentioned before. If you are, it wouldn't surprise me that these elemental observations would elude you.
The problem is people want a 100% holy grail. If I look at a chart, I have a greater than 50% probability of knowing where price will travel. If I include my indicators, that increases to 65%.
So I could call out a trade right now and be wrong, and then you would get a bunch of people say see, that trade did not work, that proves TA does not work.
They can not comprehend that if over time you have more winners than losers, you can make money, but you have to still include money management, trade management, psychology, and other items that make a winning strategy.
Reasons why most traders don't succeed are the same for many businesses.
1) Don't have enough money to trade like a business. If you have only $ 2,000, don't expect to be making $ millions.
2) Don't follow money management. You can only risk a certain % per trade without a single trade wiping you out.
3) You can not be scared to take the trade and leave it room to run. Scared money loses.
4) You have to have some type of edge, which only means that your trading strategy will make you profits over time assuming you can follow the 1st 3 rules.
So I could call out a trade right now and be wrong, and then you would get a bunch of people say see, that trade did not work, that proves TA does not work.
They can not comprehend that if over time you have more winners than losers, you can make money, but you have to still include money management, trade management, psychology, and other items that make a winning strategy.
Reasons why most traders don't succeed are the same for many businesses.
1) Don't have enough money to trade like a business. If you have only $ 2,000, don't expect to be making $ millions.
2) Don't follow money management. You can only risk a certain % per trade without a single trade wiping you out.
3) You can not be scared to take the trade and leave it room to run. Scared money loses.
4) You have to have some type of edge, which only means that your trading strategy will make you profits over time assuming you can follow the 1st 3 rules.
while i concur with the majority of your post, the captioned line is PURE HOGWASH.
If it wasn't it could be easily quantifiable, programed and market cornered if you could actually have greater than 50%odds.
seriously, the mathmatical illiteracy and just plain lack of common sense is muted in the get rich quick folks brains.
get real!!
Why do you think that I what I see can be programmed? I know many traders that make money with greater than 50% win ratio.
Some problems are that the strategy is not scalable.
Just because you can not achieve a 65% win ratio does not mean there are many traders that can and do.
My goal is not to corner the market, my goal is to make money over time.
Some problems are that the strategy is not scalable.
Just because you can not achieve a 65% win ratio does not mean there are many traders that can and do.
My goal is not to corner the market, my goal is to make money over time.
im not doubting your ability.
however, to say your chart pattern produces a greater than 50% win ratio is simple NONSENSE.
Streaks occur in all gambling endeavors. what pattern can you see that will place the odds in your favor that the pattern will continue or reverse PRIOR to it happening?
Your intuition combined with money management is likely your winning combination---however, you have mis identified the cause just like a gambler who wears a lucky hat to every horse race and thinks if he wins its due to the hat.