Are you good at price action and technical analysis?

[longandshort]

Not true.
Every trade has a seller and buyer, they balance each other.
A PA trader never knows the reason for a trade, they only assume.
Many a trade, repeating; Many a trade, is like a dummy trade, it heads one way only to reverse.
So which is the true direction, the first push or the reversal?

I'll go on and say this; if any trader (person/human) were to dedicate much time to TA/PA, they will become skilled, but it takes lots of time and experience.
Therefore TA/PA can become valid as a form of making money.

However considering the investment in time and risk, I believe there are better ways of making a buck than pure TA/PA.

great point -- and just to add, I'm not saying ta/pa is completely worthless. there's definitely a role it can play, however, it's not sufficient on its own.

 

[longandshort]

I don't think you can create a fair test, for the element of time is not arbitrary. Your screenshot chart could be at a moment in time where there is no signal. So at the vary least, having an option of "no-idea"

Traders trade various timeframes and have different trading styles under different market conditions. Even though it is PA, some use intermarket analysis and compare & contrast other instrument's PA before making a trading decision on the one they are trading.

In addition, there are those of us whom use volume and include that in our analysis, others have alternative views of the market offered by Volume Profiles and Footprint charts.

In any case, having RTH of an Index, a time axis, and having multi-timeframes would be a better "test" since including those would allow for better assessment of where price is likely to go in the instrument being traded.

Thinking one can just look at a single TF chart of a random instrument and derive any meaningful conclusion is a beginner's mentality of PA.

Fair point and again, appreciate the clearer set of rules.

If I show a chart with 1yr candles and volume, what else would I need? Also what time period would the forecast period be suitable for. E.g. using this data you would bet that price is > or < within X interval.

 

[murray t turtle]

I don't mind the time based charts but I'd like to see volume and a couple more time frames.
5 minute chart is noise.

%%
Sure is noise, so honestly i did not want to take that exact test.
But when i enter a daytrade; i find a 2 daychart with yesterdays close much more helpful.
Pennies dont help me much also;
unless its pennies per ton in metals. The metals dealer i do most business with ; has minutes + seconds time stamp so some times 5 minutes is too much time on thatLOL
Price charts are not enough @ all, no way steel scrap trades like copper or tech stocks or tech ETFs, or SPY benchmark trades alike.
Even though[IBD]+ WSJ puts SPY over NQ line charts; % + drawdown tends to be so different.

 

[easymon1]

if you tell me what you look at to make a trade, and what your average time horizon is, I’m happy to put together another test based upon that.

Go for it! 1minute, 5minute will do. We'll need a dozen of them selected at as random as you can and triggering between the hours of 8:00 am and 12:00 noon.
They don't have to exit within any particular time horizon, they will just follow the rules and either stop out or 100% target out.
If the individual traders want to go for different paramaters, that's an option, but unless otherwise specified, they are just vanilla basic Double tops or bottoms as posted in the 'rules'. Thanks!
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309

 

[murray t turtle]

I didn't take the quiz there are some major flaws with those charts. First, they're too d*mn small and I couldn't see the candles very clearly. Also why only show 3 days of data? It's not enough to show any context. For example, how would you know where the previous resistance or support?

No offense, but this amply illustrates to me that you have no idea what chart reading is. So I can't help but question the motive of this survey.

%%
THAT's one of the big problems with 5 minute charts;
3 days data with 5 minute charts = confusing to me. Can ZOOm in but then its not 3 days; + can look like too much of a wild zoo.
I dont have the following problem with 5 minute charts;
but i remember Don Bright Daytrading not liking them= too long LOL
With less than 14 minutes to close looks like SPY stays above yesterdays close;
+ if it does not , SPY =still above 50dma/200dma/ 6 month trend also. NOTa predcition, not noise....................................................

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Hello @longandshort

The ET traders you are trying to get answers from do not Know the answer or have an answer.

They are discretionary manual traders. Meaning they trade what they see and feel on the chart in the moment.

If you want concrete statically trading base answers, you need to only talk to system traders. A discretionary trader can not help you with stats, just example of what they think may work in the future of their trading.

Here is definition below of system based trading and discretionary trading.

Both ways can make money.

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...nt/system-based-vs-discretionary-trading.html

 

[easymon1]

Hello @longandshort

The ET traders you are trying to get answers from do not Know the answer or have an answer.

They are discretionary manual traders. Meaning they trade what they see and feel on the chart in the moment.

If you want concrete statically trading base answers, you need to only talk to system traders. A discretionary trader can not help you with stats, just example of what they think may work in the future of their trading.

Here is definition below of system based trading and discretionary trading.

Both ways can make money.

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...nt/system-based-vs-discretionary-trading.html

Go for it! 1minute, 5minute will do. We'll need a dozen of them selected at as random as you can and triggering between the hours of 8:00 am and 12:00 noon.
They don't have to exit within any particular time horizon, they will just follow the rules and either stop out or 100% target out.
If the individual traders want to go for different paramaters, that's an option, but unless otherwise specified, they are just vanilla basic Double tops or bottoms as posted in the 'rules'. Thanks!
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
View attachment 308062

Say what? Do your stats. Doh!, I forgot who I was talking too, lol. How's that new box project going?

 

[longandshort]

Go for it! 1minute, 5minute will do. We'll need a dozen of them selected at as random as you can and triggering between the hours of 8:00 am and 12:00 noon.
They don't have to exit within any particular time horizon, they will just follow the rules and either stop out or 100% target out.
If the individual traders want to go for different paramaters, that's an option, but unless otherwise specified, they are just vanilla basic Double tops or bottoms as posted in the 'rules'. Thanks!
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
View attachment 308062

Just to be clear — you’re saying you want a chart with 1 min candles? And the view is where price will be in 5 min?

 

[deaddog]

how do you know that your approach is better than random? iirc you mentioned a 40% hit rate which means your process is actually worse than random... beating random is the benchmark for skill...

I don't know that my approach is not random. What I do know is that it has been profitable for the last 20 years.
Win rate is not a metric that means a lot if you don't make a profit. You don't have to win more trades than you lose in order to make money.

 

[easymon1]

Just to be clear — you’re saying you want a chart with 1 min candles? And the view is where price will be in 5 min?

No, let's make the charts 1minute candles. Let's make the charts 5minute candles. Or let's make them a mix of both, that would be great. As probabilities go, there will need to be more than one example included inasmuch as one single trade tells us nothing, but a dozen would be a start on a good honest ballpark loose estimate of the setup's potential for further inquiry.
The time window is a matter of the setup's formation.
In the example above, if the very last candle that prints before the hard right edge would be the one that closes across the neckline (by the numeral '8' in the example), that starts the trade by triggering an entry on the next bar open, according to the vanilla directions.
The amount of candles that you include before the formation is up to you, but if it shows this much, we're in business...