Are you good at price action and technical analysis?

[longandshort]

Can you “predict” whether the next bar will be higher or lower with any reliability?

Nope.

A lot of the feedback here is from people who clearly don’t understand the scope of the survey. It’s merely testing a hypothesis that price action is useful to predict the next price. Clearly it’s not.

Now we can run different surveys to gauge where traders are able to use price action to define an edge.

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible. E.g. “I use 1yrs worth of historical daily charts to tell me where the stock will be in 3 months”

 

[SimpleMeLike]

If all you want is to be left alone, why did you stir this shit up?

Hello NCC1701,

I'm at the park with my dogs and I felt like responding to the thread

 

[deaddog]

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible. E.g. “I use 1yrs worth of historical daily charts to tell me where the stock will be in 3 months”

I can't tell you where the price will be in 3 months. And I'd challenge you to do the same thing using all the data at your disposal.
I can only tell you what I will do.

 

[easymon1]

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible.

You already have your method, but...
Something like this can give you a start if you are indeed interested, which you are not, lol.
...and BTW, it is not predictive, it is a simply matter of probabity. Which Stats disclose.

BTW, Do your Stats.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309

 

[Specterx]

Nope.

A lot of the feedback here is from people who clearly don’t understand the scope of the survey. It’s merely testing a hypothesis that price action is useful to predict the next price. Clearly it’s not.

Now we can run different surveys to gauge where traders are able to use price action to define an edge.

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible. E.g. “I use 1yrs worth of historical daily charts to tell me where the stock will be in 3 months”

Chart breakouts are a momentum indicator which conveys both state information (the thing is being marked up / down) and a go / no-go entry signal. For something which any idiot can access with minimal knowledge/tools and easily see visually, it works well enough in the right situation... e.g. to play hot stocks in a bull market, or as a confirmation trigger to buy the Nasdaq once the Fed slams rates back to zero.

For whatever reason though ET is chock full of guys who ostensibly use "price action" to make fortunes day trading index futures on 5 minute bars. Go figure...

 

[longandshort]

You already have your method, but...
Something like this can give you a start if you are indeed interested, which you are not, lol.
...and BTW, it is not predictive, it is a simply matter of probabity. Which Stats disclose.
View attachment 307982
BTW, Do your Stats.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309

Can you break that down into:
- what data do you need
- to make a prediction about where the stock will go

if you’re saying that you can’t predict the price then just let me know. Thanks.

 

[hilmy83]

Nope.

A lot of the feedback here is from people who clearly don’t understand the scope of the survey. It’s merely testing a hypothesis that price action is useful to predict the next price. Clearly it’s not.

Now we can run different surveys to gauge where traders are able to use price action to define an edge.

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible. E.g. “I use 1yrs worth of historical daily charts to tell me where the stock will be in 3 months”

I like how slowly ease into "tell me your edge" so maybe I can make something work lol.

Next questions should be:
1. now tell me what specific patterns you use for your entry
2. Now tell me if entry is not important...how do you manage your position?

10 questions later..ok bye I got what i need!

 

[Sprout]

Nope.

A lot of the feedback here is from people who clearly don’t understand the scope of the survey. It’s merely testing a hypothesis that price action is useful to predict the next price. Clearly it’s not.

Now we can run different surveys to gauge where traders are able to use price action to define an edge.

So here’s my follow up question:
- what exactly are you using price action for and in what timeframe does it give you a predictive advantage? Be as specific as possible. E.g. “I use 1yrs worth of historical daily charts to tell me where the stock will be in 3 months”

Ask better questions to get better answers - intraday price action is distinct from HTF's.

 

[longandshort]

I like how slowly ease into "tell me your edge" so maybe I can make something work lol.

Next questions should be:
1. now tell me what specific patterns you use for your entry
2. Now tell me if entry is not important...how do you manage your position?

10 questions later..ok bye I got what i need!

yes clearly there’s so much edge here which is why ET survey respondents perform worse than a coin flip. I don’t need to know the details of your edge, I just want to know what you think would be a good test so that you can’t use that as an excuse.

 

[longandshort]

Ask better questions to get better answers - intraday price action is distinct from HTF's.

Yes but a lot of folk on here claim that they’re day trading with price action.

I’m happy to do something for a longer time frame I just want to make sure it’s a test that people think is fair.