Are you good at price action and technical analysis?

[Scataphagos]

Hello themickey,

I personally just regret wasting so much time on it. It is just guessing and gambling and hindsight 20/20.

All the times we've communicated... and THIS is your view?

 

[longandshort]

 

[easymon1]

There is a thread by @volpri where he explains in detail his process to give you an example.

Link that bad boy up.

 

[hilmy83]

Please take my quiz. I'm looking to collect data on what the average hit rate looks like for PA and technical traders:

https://forms.gle/AbLEkA56HJVxN4598

It's a basic quiz with charts... T stands for trading day. It's not super robust and is only 15 questions, but it's the start of a larger analysis I'm conducting.

Not sharing data with anyone, nor will I be spamming you. Email is to limit quiz to 1 participant. I'll publish the findings on this thread. Thank you!

The chart format is so inconsistent how in the world you even draw any kind of conclusions from this?

 

[Darc]

Someone should start a thread - "who else has been DMed by SimpleMeLike".

 

[longandshort]

The chart format is so inconsistent how in the world you even draw any kind of conclusions from this?

The conclusion so far is that technical analysts/chart traders, on average, perform worse than a coin flip.

 

[deaddog]

The conclusion so far is that technical analysts/chart traders, on average, perform worse than a coin flip.

Isn't that what you set out to prove?
However you have to take into consideration that 6 wins out of 15 tries can be profitable if your risk to reward is 1:2.
40% win rate is pretty close to my average.

 

[SunTrader]

...
No offense, but this amply illustrates to me that you have no idea what chart reading is. So I can't help but question the motive of this survey.

That.

 

[themickey]

The conclusion so far is that technical analysts/chart traders, on average, perform worse than a coin flip.

Imagine a long queue of traders, imagine maybe 100 traders standing in line.
The first 2-3 traders are the leaders, they have some type of ability to be the whales, be it money, technology, insights, technique, algos, balls, skill, experience.....

Next in line are another half dozen who have the smarts but possibly not the same clout as the first whales in the queue.

After that come all the wannabees, they attempt to trade by following the leaders using TA.
Now down the queue is a deterioration of skills the further down the line you progress.

Question: How is it possible that TA followers can become better in terms of performance when following?
If TA is all about reacting and imitating and following, how can they beat the leaders?

 

[longandshort]

Isn't that what you set out to prove?
However you have to take into consideration that 6 wins out of 15 tries can be profitable if your risk to reward is 1:2.
40% win rate is pretty close to my average.

I initially set it up to test a group that said they had an edge (hint: they do not).

how are you determining if a risk / reward is 1:2? Are you just pointing to a line on the chart and saying “I think the stock can reach this” and then place a stop loss somewhere below the current price?