I just read an article in the Dallas Morning News with the title "What if most people are above average?" by Faye Flam. It is a very good article. The part I think is more relevant to beginning traders is this:
"The psychologists I interviewed brought up something called the Dunning-Kruger effect, more a brand of human folly than a disorder, in which people who lack a skill tend toward overconfidence because they have no idea what it takes to possess that skill. It's part of learning a skill to recognize how far you need to go to reach a desired level, and where to shore up weaknesses."
See anyone here on ET like that?
So truth. Wallstreeters are members of the "holy club" and they see their world stollen by Chicago Mercantile Exchange, thank to Mr. Lei Melamed. I am often quoting his name because I still wonder his people are not grateful - the majority of modern traders us having access to the markets thanks the revolution he did.The recognition we deserve gets ruined by all the psychopaths in Wall Street
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I think that a 95%+ failure (including abandonment) rate over time is common to most businesses with any level of competition.
I have never seen traders as being that different from other self-employed business' survival rates unless they have a monopoly.
Dear Handle 123, I am overwhelmed of joy to have possibility to read your posts again, thank you! Would be pity to leave place to the hysterical duo, which is above average in their way of accusing, lying and insulting.Most professions have a uniformed book or set of books to perform their jobs after you gone from no schooling to ten years of schooling, CPA's, Physicians, Engineers etc... But in trading, you have to write your own book from having no/little knowledge for handful of years, might think you are onto right direction and can lie to self repeatedly, as thoughts of quitting would be far more not pleasurable. Most other professions have great schools to direct you toward a specific specialty, but trading is far different. And early signs of doing well, thinking you have a gift others don't have-you get over confident and that lack of knowledge spirals into losing all that you made by luck and ton more in following years. Other professions, when you make an error, others around you to come to your aid, not in trading-you have given others your money. But right their is huge difference between working for others who need for you to succeed and owning your own business, at some point either cause lack of funds or gotten way down inside of you reached that cavern than you knew all along you were going to have to make changes. A time you have to accept you don't have a clue of what works and learn to test better, find the "edge" by testing. Test more in when not to take trades and how to manage the trades ongoing. Spend more time in the boring areas of trading but at some point they become best areas of trading and challenging self.
Many will say it is them against HFTs or automation, but in reality some don't learn to adapt, it all is self challenging self, how close can we get to zero risk. imo
next you are going to say that wall street doesn't have a disproportionate number of psychopaths.The recognition we deserve gets ruined by all the psychopaths in Wall Street![]()

I just read an article in the Dallas Morning News with the title "What if most people are above average?" by Faye Flam. It is a very good article. The part I think is more relevant to beginning traders is this:
"The psychologists I interviewed brought up something called the Dunning-Kruger effect, more a brand of human folly than a disorder, in which people who lack a skill tend toward overconfidence because they have no idea what it takes to possess that skill. It's part of learning a skill to recognize how far you need to go to reach a desired level, and where to shore up weaknesses."
See anyone here on ET like that?
You definitely see a plethora of cognitive biases in professional traders/portfolio managers. It varies from the a garden variety overconfidence in relatively junior people to pretty much every effect in the book, from anchoring to endowment effect. It's true even for systematic managers, though it usually has less obvious effects if they have a good process in place.A lot of people talk about psychology issues but I don't know how it plays in traders' mind unless they are beginners.
You definitely see a plethora of cognitive biases in professional traders/portfolio managers. It varies from the a garden variety overconfidence in relatively junior people to pretty much every effect in the book, from anchoring to endowment effect. It's true even for systematic managers, though it usually has less obvious effects if they have a good process in place.