Quote from Thunderdog:
The compounding argument applies regardless. Only a fool would "sweep" out money that could be earning 10% or more per month before compounding. At those rates of return, it would even be worthwhile to live on credit card debt, because the cost of borrowing is much, much lower than these alleged returns. Why would anyone just tread water indefinitely, as you suggest, if they could live beneath their means for a relatively short period of time and then retire early?
Let us use your example. If the trader with the 100k could manage to "somehow" set aside only 25k, which he would allow to compound at the suggested rates of return, that 25k would compound to well over $7 Million after a 5-year period. Admittedly, that calculation is pre-tax, however it is compelling nonetheless. Factor in your tax rate, thereby reducing the compounding effect somewhat, and you will still find that it is preposterously stupid not to let earnings compound at such a rate, even if it means living in near squalor for a time.
Against this background, I will maintain my initial assessment regarding the poll's proportion of such stellar traders:
Bullshit.
In fact, what this poll confirms is that ET has more than its fair share of shameless liars.
)Quote from Thunderdog:
Just a quick note to say that I may have been a bit abrasive in my earlier comment, and I regret that. My only point of contention, was that I think that the idea of one-third of respondents to this poll making those kinds of returns is simply not believable, even accounting for the possibility that a higher than representative proportion of successful traders may have decided to respond to the poll. I realize that the compounding argument only goes so far in the real world, but I just wanted to express my disdain with exaggeration. It is downright annoying.
Therefore, please disregard my last post, volente. And it's good to hear from you Kelly/glassinc. To respond to your parting comment, I seem to be managing, but apparently nowhere near the level of the top third of this poll's respondents on a consistent basis. (Maybe that's why I'm peeved.)
I understand your point. I just don't think that this "hospital" has as many "doctors" as some would have you believe. Judging by a lot of the posts I read, my own guess is that ET's membership is representative of the broad spectrum of traders. Therefore, any aggregate statistics that may apply to all traders out there can probably be applied to ET's membership as well. Just my opinion, of course.Quote from volente_00:
To pick your brain,
Say 2 % of the population in the US are doctors, not sure what the actual number is but it is irrelevant, if you go into a hospital and do a survey will there only be 2% of doctors out of the enitire hospital staff ?
Now say 90% fail at trading, if you go to Bright trading in LV, will only 10% of the traders there be profitable ?
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To be clear, I'm not the one who said 10%(+). Rather, the initiator of this thread mentioned it, and a disproportionate number of respondents flooded to it. My own assumption is that the poster meant 10% monthly return on account equity.Quote from volente_00:
Also to be fair when you say 10% return is that on just the capital in your account or is that 10% return using 4 to 1 margin or is that 10% return using 100 to 1 margin in futures?
Quote from Donkell:
Thunderdog
set aside only 25k, which he would allow to compound at the suggested rates of return, that 25k would compound to well over $7 Million after a 5-year period.
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Those figures are so far off it's hard to figure what you are using as interest, and where would you get this high interest? You would could not even triple your money if you could get 20%.
How the heck did you figure?
don