are you a predictor?

OddTrader · Oct 3, 2005

Probably trading would be like how to manage a paradox - perhaps we need to predict and not to predict at the same time. :eek:

Perseus · Oct 3, 2005

I think that as long as you understand you are predicting in a statistical way then there is nothing wrong with being a 'predictor' - however I agree with most people here that it is quite stupid to make the hero calls such as "the dow will touch 9000 on december 15" .

illiquid · Oct 3, 2005

"statistical" is yet another semantic pitfall. Something could have worked 9 out of 10 times until today, where it then becomes no better than random. Yet how long does one trade it until he admits it doesn't work "reliably" anymore.

Boy Plunger · Oct 3, 2005

Am i to understand that the majority of people believe that watching price and volume to initiate a trade at times of peak sentiment and order flow is predicting about the market and direction?

My understanding as it refers to me, my account, and my trades is that i exchange us dollars for paper assets in anticipation that when the conversion is reversed there will be more us dollars than before the conversion. That's it. You want to question motivation and call it prediction?

Next you will say a mob is a going away party. Fine by me.

volente_00 · Oct 3, 2005

I don't predict, I use certain available data to anticipate what will happen, I then take my position and react to what the market does. If I am wrong I get stopped put, If I am right then money is made.

Bitstream · Oct 3, 2005

Quote from volente_00:

I don't predict, I use certain available data to anticipate what will happen, I then take my position and react to what the market does. If I am wrong I get stopped put, If I am right then money is made.

Anticipating is like foretelling and foretelling is like predicting, they are all synonymous: to predict means to state or make a declaration about in advance and that's exactly what you do when you decide to long or short when enter a trade.

volente_00 · Oct 3, 2005

Perhaps a more fitting term is "educated guesser". Anytime anyone puts on a trade, that is all you are doing. Through trial and error, and lots of time watching ,arlets trade, one can become a better educated guesser than others which allows you to profit off of ignorance or laziness.

NKNY · Oct 3, 2005

Quote from hcour:

Absolutely!

This is one of those "issues" that "fundamentalists" often raise. "You can't predict the markets!" As if fundamental analysis isn't also a form of projecting into the future!

When anyone anywhere takes a position in any market for any reason, they are "predicting". It's inherent to the process. To suggest otherwise is naive.

H

Debating the term may just be semantics.... I think the mindset is ultimately more important. Some actually attempt to predict or believe that they can predict price levels, time horizons, magnitude of move etc...

I know that In reality I have no idea If my next trade will be a winner or loser. All I know is that it has a slight probability to go my way.... The only full fledged prediction I make is that If I follow and apply my model consistently... I should be profitable over time if blessed with some volatility...

Nick

NKNY · Oct 3, 2005

Quote from volente_00:

Perhaps a more fitting term is "educated guesser". Anytime anyone puts on a trade, that is all you are doing. Through trial and error, and lots of time watching ,arlets trade, one can become a better educated guesser than others which allows you to profit off of ignorance or laziness.

"educated guesser"... I Like it....

QQQShort · Oct 3, 2005

Quote from NKNY:

Debating the term may just be semantics.... I think the mindset is ultimately more important. Some actually attempt to predict or believe that they can predict price levels, time horizons, magnitude of move etc...

I know that In reality I have no idea If my next trade will be a winner or loser. All I know is that it has a slight probability to go my way.... The only full fledged prediction I make is that If I follow and apply my model consistently... I should be profitable over time if blessed with some volatility...

Nick

As you noted, there is a subtle -- but important -- difference between prediction and probability. Understanding this difference helps to develop systems and follow one's rules.