Are we seeing distribution?

heavenskrow

heavenskrow

Back in February 2016, I made a post regarding what was up with all the buying at the ramp and close.

Here is the pic prior to the major bottom in markets.
ztLwnxp.png


Now I am seeing similar traits on the tape but inverse. The past few days has been EERILY weird. You can see for example on TF and on other majors, we have been testing the lows all the way down to 100% instead of making a higher low intraday. It honestly seems like the big boys are taking every opportunity they can get to SELL. But what do I know
6p3RQt1.png

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Intermarket analysis that I do is starting to show bearish signs and with today's action...it seems to be confirming it. Now the only question is the volatility drop today into the close. My guess is that we get a huge selloff in volatility to (fakeout) and pretend everything is fine and no fear rally to the moon in equities before reversing much like we did in Feb 2016.
 
USD all of a sudden not such a sure thing. Actually, it traded really well right out of the gate Jan 2. That lasted about a half hour and it really hasn't been right since.
 
Yes, we are seeing distribution.

In particular, we are seeing a calendar-year change, a quarter-year change, a FED-policy regime change, and a U.S. presidential regime change, all at once.

Now, if these changes are largely non-*economy* changes, we also have actual *economic* change coming to the fore. (And "Woot!" that.)

So, yeah, there be a crap-ton-load of reasons to buy, reasons to sell, *all* going on at once.

Lazy-azzed movement will come at the open and close, as various shops realize that their day's agenda ain't been filled. As well, you'll see two things with regular occurence:
1) TICK and TRIN will not behave normally, being up when they "should be" down, and vice-versa. As well, you'll see them moving *together*. Yipes!
2) Similarly, we'll see the VIX track *with* the SPX, regularly. Uh-ohhhhhhh.

When this is jostling/settlement is over, these behaviors will have gone away.
For now, stay the 'ell on your toes.
 
tommcginnis said:
Yes, we are seeing distribution.

In particular, we are seeing a calendar-year change, a quarter-year change, a FED-policy regime change, and a U.S. presidential regime change, all at once.

Now, if these changes are largely non-*economy* changes, we also have actual *economic* change coming to the fore. (And "Woot!" that.)

So, yeah, there be a crap-ton-load of reasons to buy, reasons to sell, *all* going on at once.

Lazy-azzed movement will come at the open and close, as various shops realize that their day's agenda ain't been filled. As well, you'll see two things with regular occurence:
1) TICK and TRIN will not behave normally, being up when they "should be" down, and vice-versa. As well, you'll see them moving *together*. Yipes!
2) Similarly, we'll see the VIX track *with* the SPX, regularly. Uh-ohhhhhhh.

When this is jostling/settlement is over, these behaviors will have gone away.
For now, stay the 'ell on your toes.
More...
Gobbledygook
 
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