are we just making things complicated?

Originally posted by aphexcoil


Many many many systems are profitable in the short-run and losers in the long run. I think Oldtrader's methods are central to the market itself and therefore naturally adapts to market changes.
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I have no doubt at all that your statement is true. I'm sure that methods that adapts to market changes work wonderfully.

But I wouldn't use that to say that methods that don't adapt to market conditions are bound to fail. Surely profitable methods exist that work indepenent of market conditions. Many ways to skin that cat even over the long term.
 
But I wouldn't use that to say that methods that don't adapt to market conditions are bound to fail. Surely profitable methods exist that work indepenent of market conditions. Many ways to skin that cat even over the long term.
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This is true -- that's why I said many and not all. I'm watching your "simplistic system" thread with peaked curiousity. You've taken a rather unique approach to trading ES that may work very well for you over time.
 
Originally posted by Quah


Why am I posting here? Because I want to, it's interesting, and I can learn something. One thing you won't see me posting is that the method someone uses to trade is "wrong", or certain to be a loser, just because I wouldn't do it the same way.
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No one said your method is wrong -- I just think what you're attributing to your success may not be what you think. But when you make statements like "who cares as long as you make money" -- well I would care, if someone is making money and I want to learn from that method, first off I would want to check if his system has merit and really carries an edge that I can emulate.

Take the example of a system that just sells out of the money puts and calls one week before expiration. I'll bet that system will be quite profitable for perhaps a very long time -- until the one time some stock gets a takeover bid or announces CEO fraud and the system ends up losing all of it's former gains and then some. If someone came onto this board and said "look, selling out of the money naked calls and puts is easy money" -- wouldn't you have to do a bit more analysis of that system before you can even say it's a logical system, even though it may be profitable for months and months?

There's nothing wrong with critiquing a method, that's what we're here for; no need to get that defensive, eh? :D
 
Originally posted by illiquid


No one said your method is wrong -- I just think what you're attributing to your success may not be what you think.
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I really wasn't specifically refering to the method I posted. Mainly my only concerns are blanket statements that mechanical systems don't work, indicators can't work, stuff like that.

No one really knows what might work for them and what won't until they've tried it. And even then, they really have no idea how long it will continue to work, no matter what their method is.
 
Originally posted by Quah



No one really knows what might work for them and what won't until they've tried it. And even then, they really have no idea how long it will continue to work, no matter what their method is.
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I think you're absolutely wrong in this statement.

With this statement what you're really saying is that we can't know anything by any other method than "trying it". Son, it's going to be a long, tough life with that particular philosophy. This sounds like a feel good, evenhanded approach to life...but I'll guarantee you it's a hard road to hoe.

I can tell you some kinds of things that don't work after 35 years of trading. And if they do work temporarily I can tell you they won't work for long.

OldTrader
 
Originally posted by Quah

No one really knows what might work for them and what won't until they've tried it. And even then, they really have no idea how long it will continue to work, no matter what their method is.
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Originally posted by OldTrader


I think you're absolutely wrong in this statement.

This sounds like a feel good, evenhanded approach to life...but I'll guarantee you it's a hard road to hoe.

I can tell you some kinds of things that don't work after 35 years of trading. And if they do work temporarily I can tell you they won't work for long.
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What are you talking about Old Dude? Wasn't Quah just making the same point?
 
Originally posted by daniel_m






What are you talking about Old Dude? Wasn't Quah just making the same point?
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Nope...completely opposite point. I hope your trading skills exceed your reading skills...."dude".

OldTrader
 
What moves the market is a difference of opinion. Fortunately we dont agree on everything. I would like to point out that not all indicators are lagging. Momentum often leads price and divergences, which are not always obvious by price alone, can be very lucrative.
 
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