Are we in Recession Right Now?

[LacesOut]

Pulling this from CalculatedRisk

You can click the link to get a better understanding of each item.

Aside from the above, you can use the St Louis Fred to look up the big 4: real income, real retail sales, industrial production and unemployment for further analysis. Be careful with industrial production, there's a bit of tomfoolery with the inner workings, ie the mining and utilities part. Check the subsector, Manufacturing, to see that all is not falling off a cliff.

Bottom line, no recession.

yes an interesting chart, and what i see is that while it's not falling off a cliff, it's running towards it.
thanks

 

[Covertibility]

For some people who can't find Industrial Production: Manufacturing on FRED:

Does anyone see it running to a cliff?

Does anyone see Jesus anywhere on the graph?

 

[fhl]

As a matter of fact, i do.

Does anyone see industrial production going up a fagpole in this graph?

 

[Chris Mac]

Low oil prices are going to be around for a while.

I don't think we will be seeing oil at $100 barrel again any time soon.

I agree. It will take years and years. Historically, bear markets commodities last decades.

CM

 

[S2007S]

We are still in a recession..... Everything being propped up the last 7 years is nothing but an illusion set up by the fed and their trillions and trillions of dollars to keep the game going ....there isn't any growth left so the fed has to create growth by handing out worthless trillions.....no one notices it now but when the next crisis comes along all your questions will be answered.

 

[Chris Mac]

We are still in a recession..... Everything being propped up the last 7 years is nothing but an illusion set up by the fed and their trillions and trillions of dollars to keep the game going ....there isn't any growth left so the fed has to create growth by handing out worthless trillions.....no one notices it now but when the next crisis comes along all your questions will be answered.

Ok, but remember wars are far more damageable than recessions.
Since Dow Jones was created, we faced 2 world war, 1 cold war, terrorism attacks, multiple global recessions, techno bubble burst, subprimes crisis, Gold standard crisis, oil crisis, AIDS, H1N1, etc.
And Dow is always back on track.
That is why Dow Jones will be still up, as long as there will be a stock market.

CM

 

[der_kommissar]

Ok, but remember wars are far more damageable than recessions.
Since Dow Jones was created, we faced 2 world war, 1 cold war, terrorism attacks, multiple global recessions, techno bubble burst, subprimes crisis, Gold standard crisis, oil crisis, AIDS, H1N1, etc.
And Dow is always back on track.
That is why Dow Jones will be still up, as long as there will be a stock market.

CM

More accurately, so long as there is a currency to devalue.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

I agree. It will take years and years. Historically, bear markets commodities last decades.

CM

They definitely can last decades. I believe that a "CRISIS IN FAITH OF THE U.S. DOLLAR" and therefore a crisis of faith in our government, will create demand for tangible things that have intrinsic value to be not that far off. Faith in paper will diminish more and more...I like precious metals and agriculture...they'll hold value in a depression and soar during high inflation. The tough part of this theory...the first signs of crisis will move the U.S. Dollar much higher because of its "safe haven" status.