are we in a recession?

[oldtime]

Quote from MKTrader:

That will take you infinitely far. Politicians can continually redefine who's poor and who "needs a hand." They talk as if it's a small group that needs short-term help to get back on their feet. In reality, there are multiple generations of dole suckers, and it's only getting worse.

This is one of many examples:

http://news.yahoo.com/report-social-security-lax-disability-claims-080001597.html

my definition of poor is 50%, quite simple, it can be adjusted every year

the 47% who pay no income taxes are poor

in my world there is no middle class

you are either in the top 50% which makes you rich

or the bottom 50% which makes you poor and qualifies you for food stamps and medicaid.

but that's it man, all this other stuff has to go

especially student loans and medicare

social security? it's ok as long as they manage it well and keep it solvent no matter how high your ss taxes must go

worst idea is to raise the age, we got enough kids as it is looking for a job without having to wait another three years for me to retire

 

[piezoe]

Quote from oldtime:

wasn't talking about medicare, I think that should be eliminated.

was talking about medicaid, which is a program I'm willing to pay for to insure the poor can go to the doctor if they need to

and I think 50% of all US citizens should qualify for it, and also food stamps

Very difficult if not impossible to qualify for medicaid in many States if you are single no matter how destitute. That's one of the things driving the Disability cheating. If you can somehow get a lawyer on contingency that can get you disability, you can then get access to medical care. (Getting folks approved for disability has put a lot of lawyers to work.)

The U.S. is the only industrialized nation on this planet that denies health care to its citizens. (Don't bother to tell me that the poor can just go to the emergency room. That is NOT medical care!)

 

[piezoe]

Quote from achilles28:

Some thoughts about Japan, and why America is different.

Japans external debt (held by foreigners) is roughly 650 billion, or 5% of it's total sovereign debt. On the asset side, the BoJ holds over 3 Trillion in foreign securities. That means if foreigners dumped Japans debt, the BoJ could step in and defend the Yen - several times over - through the sale of foreign assets and the purchase of Yen. Because of that balance of foreign assets to foreign liabilities, Japan is a net creditor.

America is the opposite. Roughly 5.4 Trillion of the national debt is held by foreigners (33%). The Federal Reserve, as far as I can tell, holds only ~700 Billion in foreign assets and gold, on it's balance sheet. That means if the FED continues to debase, there's no "dry powder" to intervene with and buy the dollar, if and when there's mass flight from US Treasury markets (and out of the USD). America is net debtor.

Net debtors, from recent history, seem to have trouble refinancing their debt at 90-130% debt to GDP. Capital markets balk, and then the shtf. Japan never had that problem because it's foreign assets far exceeded it's foreign liabilities. If the FED had ~11 Trillion in foreign assets on its books, theoretically, we could run up the national debt to 32 Trillion dollars, without worrying about a dollar collapse (assuming the current proportion of foreign ownership of US Treasuries remained constant). But that's not the case. What's interesting, is that the FED could have ran the exact same mercantile policy as Japan and China - printing dollars and accumulating foreign assets, instead of toxic mortgage paper. The net effect would be the same on the USD (debasement) but the FED would have more of an anchor to back-stop deficit spending and the USD. Of course, our banks would have crashed. And that's the only difference. It was about saving private banks, at the expense of the currency.

Achilles, that's a nice analysis of the Japan vs US debt situation. A point I have often tried to make. Did you get Soros's book yet and read it?

 

[toc]

Quote from oldtime:

my definition of poor is 50%, quite simple, it can be adjusted every year

the 47% who pay no income taxes are poor

in my world there is no middle class

you are either in the top 50% which makes you rich

or the bottom 50% which makes you poor and qualifies you for food stamps and medicaid.

but that's it man, all this other stuff has to go

especially student loans and medicare

social security? it's ok as long as they manage it well and keep it solvent no matter how high your ss taxes must go

worst idea is to raise the age, we got enough kids as it is looking for a job without having to wait another three years for me to retire

During FY 2011, the federal government spent $3.60 trillion on a budget or cash basis, up 4% vs. FY 2010 spending of $3.46 trillion and up 20% versus FY2008 spend of $2.97 trillion. Major categories of FY 2011 spending included: Medicare & Medicaid ($835B or 24%), Social Security ($725B or 20%), Defense Department ($700B or 19%), non-defense discretionary ($646B or 19%), other ($465B or 12%) and interest ($227B or 6%). Expenditures are classified as mandatory, with payments required by specific laws, or discretionary, with payment amounts renewed annually as part of the budget process. Expenditures averaged 20.6% GDP from 1971 to 2008, generally ranging +/-2% GDP from that level. The 2011 and 2010 spend were both 24.1% GDP, versus 2008 spend of 20.8% GDP

For a prudent government, there is good $600B savings from Defense, Medicare & Mediaid and non discretionary spending. Each of these should be asked for find $200B annual savings. Budgets need to be balanced from 2013 onwards, even if it means drastic measures.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from piezoe:

Achilles, that's a nice analysis of the Japan vs US debt situation. A point I have often tried to make. Did you get Soros's book yet and read it?

Thanks, Pie. Not yet. Busy here. Thought you were about to take me to school on my medicare rebuttal. Guess I dodged a bullet there

 

[Swan Noir]

Clearly the fact that Japan's debt is largely held by their own citizens is a huge advantage and makes a comparison with our own deficit problem apples and oranges. But their aging population and lack of immigration to "average down" their demographic profile is a serious matter. Certainly some portion -- possibly a significant portion -- of there retiring population will need to cash out and that could make rolling over such a large debt difficult.

Quote from achilles28:

Some thoughts about Japan, and why America is different.

Japans external debt (held by foreigners) is roughly 650 billion, or 5% of it's total sovereign debt. On the asset side, the BoJ holds over 3 Trillion in foreign securities. That means if foreigners dumped Japans debt, the BoJ could step in and defend the Yen - several times over - through the sale of foreign assets and the purchase of Yen. Because of that balance of foreign assets to foreign liabilities, Japan is a net creditor.

America is the opposite. Roughly 5.4 Trillion of the national debt is held by foreigners (33%). The Federal Reserve, as far as I can tell, holds only ~700 Billion in foreign assets and gold, on it's balance sheet. That means if the FED continues to debase, there's no "dry powder" to intervene with and buy the dollar, if and when there's mass flight from US Treasury markets (and out of the USD). America is net debtor.

Net debtors, from recent history, seem to have trouble refinancing their debt at 90-130% debt to GDP. Capital markets balk, and then the shtf. Japan never had that problem because it's foreign assets far exceeded it's foreign liabilities. If the FED had ~11 Trillion in foreign assets on its books, theoretically, we could run up the national debt to 32 Trillion dollars, without worrying about a dollar collapse (assuming the current proportion of foreign ownership of US Treasuries remained constant). But that's not the case. What's interesting, is that the FED could have ran the exact same mercantile policy as Japan and China - printing dollars and accumulating foreign assets, instead of toxic mortgage paper. The net effect would be the same on the USD (debasement) but the FED would have more of an anchor to back-stop deficit spending and the USD. Of course, our banks would have crashed. And that's the only difference. It was about saving private banks, at the expense of the currency.

 

[TGregg]

Quote from oldtime:

who are these "people" you refer to? You mean all the people who are not as smart as you?

What's it like to be smarter than everybody else?

It is not as fun as you would suppose. For the record, my IQ is 140, better than 98% of the US general population - so yes, I am "smarter than everybody else" or nearly so.

It is a lot less fun living with a bunch of (relative) retards that can still vote than you would imagine.

 

[trefoil]

Not in a recession; just crawling sideways for now. Could go either way soon, depending on if the eurozone or China really cracks. Fiscal cliff? Forget it, not falling off that.

 

[nutmeg]

Quote from TGregg:

It is not as fun as you would suppose. For the record, my IQ is 140, better than 98% of the US general population - so yes, I am "smarter than everybody else" or nearly so.

It is a lot less fun living with a bunch of (relative) retards that can still vote than you would imagine.

Point well taken.

I've spent some time thinking about the carefree life style of ignorance and what I'm missing.

From the days of my youth, if I determined I was the smartest guy in the room I left.

As far as dealing with a bunch of retards.....I just deal with them using humor, sarcasm and blunt force vocabulary...then tell them I have tourettes, that always gets them....duh what's that..... uhmnnn.. that's for me to know and you to fiind out.. lmao..

 

[oldtime]

Quote from nutmeg:

Point well taken.

I've spent some time thinking about the carefree life style of ignorance and what I'm missing.

From the days of my youth, if I determined I was the smartest guy in the room I left.

As far as dealing with a bunch of retards.....I just deal with them using humor, sarcasm and blunt force vocabulary...then tell them I have tourettes, that always gets them....duh what's that..... uhmnnn.. that's for me to know and you to fiind out.. lmao..

I actually have tourettes, it's not that funny, it's one of the reasons I can only communicate with the outside world over the internet. Only 5% of the people have it, so there's not much incentive to find a cure. They have prescribed everything fom prozac to high blood pressure medicine, but nothing works. They told me it would get better when I got older, but somedays it only seems to be getting worse. That's why I don't like words like calling people "retards". Some parent out there is dealing with a child that wasn't born like most.

If you want to make fun of people, why don't you make fun of people that get cancer? They are the poor schmucks getting screwed on Social Security and making it possible for all us smart people to benefit.