are we in a recession?

[oldtime]

Quote from brokerboy:

an economist might claim an economy don't know its in a recession until something major happens that shocks the stock markets. you are debating the stock market and i am talking economics. my point with goog is that its a major stock and a 60 point drop is a sign of problems ahead.

i like quotes too so i will use one from good fellas.
"See, your murderers come with smiles, they come as your friends"

if it was a $60 stock and it moved 6 would you be so worried?

 

[brokerboy]

its the 5th biggest company in america and it lost like 10% on its value. apple is the biggest and its down 10% too. its just information look at it how you want.

Quote from oldtime:

if it was a $60 stock and it moved 6 would you be so worried?

 

[bonds]

GOOG has gained over 40% in the last 4 months and here we have a 7% pullback... big deal.

Remember AAPL's last report, missed earnings, revenue, iphones, guided lower... it took 2 days after earnings to recoup the pullback and kept ripping till all time highs.

The question isnt when will GOOG get back to highs its only a question of when.

Not saying I agree with it, but look at all these crappy earnings coming out market keeps going higher and most stocks missing/lowering guidance are back recouping losses the same day, let alone in the days after.

Maybe the market will prove me wrong, but its clearly shown earnings dont matter, economic data dont matter, economic certainty dont matter... its going higher.

 

[bonds]

Quote from brokerboy:

its the 5th biggest company in america and it lost like 10% on its value. apple is the biggest and its down 10% too. its just information look at it how you want.

AAPL is the largest company and is only up 50% ytd. Depends on how you want to look at it.

 

[brokerboy]

i said before that economist claim you can be in a recession but it can take a major event for the markets to notice it. i think its worth noticing big companies dropping 10%. i don't disagree that the markets are up. i am only saying they are not up for good earnings or positive economics. you either have to believe earnings and economics indicators will be rocketing up soon or stocks will be coming down.

Quote from bonds:

GOOG has gained over 40% in the last 4 months and here we have a 7% pullback... big deal.

Remember AAPL's last report, missed earnings, revenue, iphones, guided lower... it took 2 days after earnings to recoup the pullback and kept ripping till all time highs.

The question isnt when will GOOG get back to highs its only a question of when.

Not saying I agree with it, but look at all these crappy earnings coming out market keeps going higher and most stocks missing/lowering guidance are back recouping losses the same day, let alone in the days after.

Maybe the market will prove me wrong, but its clearly shown earnings dont matter, economic data dont matter, economic certainty dont matter... its going higher.

 

[brokerboy]

you should look at a chart of the internet bubble the last few weeks before it popped. i think the markets will correct but i have no idea when.

Quote from bonds:

AAPL is the largest company and is only up 50% ytd. Depends on how you want to look at it.

 

[denner]

Quote from 007Arb:

If we are in a recession someone better tell the junk bond market, a market especially sensitive to recessions. The Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index, the proxy for junk bonds, made an all time historical high yesterday.

We're re-playing the same euphoria of the 2003-2008 period, albeit in a more manic depressive, shortened timespan. Same monetary tricks, same herd mentality, etc...The Fed on the bid hyping up "asset inflation at all costs", etc...

One little problem with pursuing asset inflation as fix all...it has a nasty habit of spilling over into the real economy and squeezing both consumers and small businesses that have to pay the price for the monetary hijinx.

 

[denner]

Quote from brokerboy:

i said before that economist claim you can be in a recession but it can take a major event for the markets to notice it. i think its worth noticing big companies dropping 10%. i don't disagree that the markets are up. i am only saying they are not up for good earnings or positive economics. you either have to believe earnings and economics indicators will be rocketing up soon or stocks will be coming down.

You're right. Reminds me of all the growth forecasts for 2012 (made in Q4 2011). Of course, they get revised down, more hype about another round of QE...then the markets correct (remember our correction earlier this year..the pundits were already convinced we were in a recession), all of a sudden risk assets take off and the recession talk goes away, a bunch of fake jobs are created and voila, all is rosy again.

Now, more than ever, the news cycles chase the market higher or lower. If the S&P drops a few percent, the massaged econ numbers can easily be disputed and a case for recession can be made...OTOH, there are so many conflicting data sets, that unless you really have your pulse on the economy, a persuasive and misleading argument can be made for either case...We saw glimpses of this kind of crap between 2003-08, but it's been taken into overdrive since 2008.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

more like stagnation than recession, technically, GDP growth needs to be in the negative territory for several quarters to qualify a recession, but as you can see, GDP is moving along just above the 1-2% mark.

 

[denner]

Quote from HeSaidSheSaid:

more like stagnation than recession, technically, GDP growth needs to be in the negative territory for several quarters to qualify a recession, but as you can see, GDP is moving along just above the 1-2% mark.

Only because inflation is purposely understated, tweaked, massaged or ignored...whatever serves the purpose of keeping the Fed "actively engaged" in fighting the deflation bogeyman...