Are we headed for 2008 level volatility?

Very likely. It is very hard to guess what happens at the extremes.

There's always going to be freaked out dudes sending out market orders during the thinnest liquidity to create a legendary print.

Sustained high vol is much more interesting. We have Diamond Hands in the game. Could be a long bear market than a deep one. Next Fiscal Policy will put money straight into your brokerage account.
 
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Periods of high volatility are where the serious money is made. As in all environments, it requires patience, skill and discipline. Potential risks are higher on a given trade but commensurate with potential reward. 2008 was a relatively short lived crash, look to 2000-2001 for a closer likely parallel.
 
speedo said:
Periods of high volatility are where the serious money is made. As in all environments, it requires patience, skill and discipline. Potential risks are higher on a given trade but commensurate with potential reward. 2008 was a relatively short lived crash, look to 2000-2001 for a closer likely parallel.
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My canaries have made big moves into Dividend Funds which did well according to the 2000-2001 playbook. Maybe worth a new thread.
 
Why is the VIX only at 30? Looks like it is just an orderly sell off. Still no panicking which means it is yet to come.

One thing I noticed from the talking heads is they still claim inflation is on the verge of coming down any second now. Unless these deflationistas give up their dream of "supply-chain" nonsense it will persist. This morning though Cramer looked like he was panicked. He wants JPow to go full Volcker.
 
87', 01, 08' and now 22' the market is by far more orderly. Things have been automated and irrational exuberance has a minor role. Following the boom bust cycles, this so far has much more predictability and can be easily traded. Looking for a range to trade will be a deadly move. Global macro sentiment will be a by signal. I had a one a billion trade back in 08' USD/JPY ...simple when the pundits say it can't get any worse the the end times are nigh, hit the buy button. ...
 
Its easy. Just listen to the fed. At some point they will reverse course from tightening to standard (and then to easing again probably).. And they give hints out far before. Listen what they say and you WILL be fine no matter what.
 
David's faith said:
Its easy. Just listen to the fed. At some point they will reverse course from tightening to standard (and then to easing again probably).. And they give hints out far before. Listen what they say and you WILL be fine no matter what.
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Jerome Powell and FED have been very clear/deliberate with their communications. Recent interviews, such as in Marketplace.org, was his unofficial channel for asking:

" ARE YOU GUYS F...ING LISTENING TO ME???".
 
David's faith said:
Its easy. Just listen to the fed. At some point they will reverse course from tightening to standard (and then to easing again probably).. And they give hints out far before. Listen what they say and you WILL be fine no matter what.
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Agreed. And this time, they are saying they will do whatever it takes to get inflation down. At least this is the message I am hearing.
 
NoahA said:
Agreed. And this time, they are saying they will do whatever it takes to get inflation down. At least this is the message I am hearing.
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BAH, that's what Powell said at the last meeting, but last Tuesday took the 75 BPS rate-hike off the table, and the Dow has dropped 3,000 points since then!

That is not "whatever it takes". Talk about a policy error!
 
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