Update on my "where are we most likely to bounce" post from the 2nd.
August 2
We are pretty much where we ought to be, at least with regard to the SPX. I wouldn't get excited unless we break 1900. According to
AMT, that would be the most likely place for a reversal.
And, for grins, the NDX. If we bounce off the mean of the next older channel (we just fell out of the most recent one), we'll be doing so at about the same time that the SPX reaches the bottom of its channel (above). If we drop all the way to the lower limit, that'll be 10%.
August 6
And here we are at 1903.
Heads up.
And the charts. One of the first charts has disappeared, but I happened to keep copies. So the first two are from the first post, the second two are from this week. As you can see, the SPX bounced off its lower trendline and the NDX bounced off the mean of its trend channel, as anticipated. If you find this interesting, see the AMT link above.
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