Are we close to a seeing a massive stock market correction?

[Overnight]

Please redo calcs...500 point fall in dow at dow 23400 would be more than 2% (quick maths in head)

Yep yep, my mistake.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Five year chart of ES.....seems the market has been on a long term upswing since well before 2013 so why give assume this market is booming based on the man who has not passed any legislation that has any effect on the market. In 2013 market went up 45% or so. I doubt Amazon, Apple, Coke, GOOG will see earnings affected by the Idiot in Chief from either party. Presidents always take credit for the stock market going up as if they had something to do with it or that represents the U.S. economy. 50% of SP500 revenues come from overseas. The S&P500 is no more an indicator of the U.S. economy than my ass is.

Artificial pricing of the stock market is going up because there is no reason not to based on past 5 years of the economy holding somewhat steady and global economy being free from any pressing economic crisis. Despite the occasional military risk, boredom in the world economy means stock prices will float higher like balloons.

 

[Visaria]

Agree...the market goes up or down despite the insanity of whoever's presidente

 

[Overnight]

...I doubt Amazon, Apple, Coke, GOOG will see earnings affected by the Idiot in Chief from either party. Presidents always take credit for the stock market going up as if they had something to do with it or that represents the U.S. economy...

The funnier thing is that some of these POTUSs seem to think that when they are elected, anything they do is affecting the US right then and there when it comes to overall budgeting.

The thing is, the US fiscal year begins on Oct 1st. Which means that any changes in the economy that had to do with 2017 happened on Obama's watch, when his last fiscal year started on Oct 1, 2016. It is only now at the end of 2017 that Trump's stuff will be realized (Well, in 2018), now that this is his first fiscal year at the helm. (And if they can even pass a budget.)

 

[lawrence-lugar]

As an Independent, I'm looking at the big reasons why this stock market has accelerated rapidly since Trump was elected:

1) The promise of much lower corporate tax rates;

2) Continuation of a low-interest environment;

3) Companies lean and mean, continuing to grind out increased profits, Q over Q;

Thoughts? Comments?

That's your fallacy right there as a trader (or investor)...you're a logical, square, fundamental person;

Alot of people have assumed a market, bearish correction was in the works for the past six years.

 

[beerntrading]

Alot of people have assumed a market, bearish correction was in the works for the past six years.

The forums are littered with dead bears.

I want someone to make calls on the next bottom after we hit the top and the Big One. I would guess it's above where we are now. This bull's just taking a brief breather on the news that Republicans no longer have a whippable majority in the Senate. But as I've said once already on this thread, there's no government like no government.

 

[shatteredx]

Tough to call the market top. I'd look for a lower swing high on the weeklies first.

 

[Cuddles]

I'd say it starts Monday

 

[Hooter]

Its been an amazing October. How long can this go on?

 

[ToddGaack23]

As an Independent, I'm looking at the big reasons why this stock market has accelerated rapidly since Trump was elected:

1) The promise of much lower corporate tax rates;

2) Continuation of a low-interest environment;

3) Companies lean and mean, continuing to grind out increased profits, Q over Q;

Following the plight of the current Administration and Congress, and its inability to legislate anything major thus far, I fail to see how a tax reform package will get passed, let alone defined. Every day its alleged content seems to change, whether it's elimination of 401K tax deferral, elimination of the mortgage deduction, increased child care tax credits, elimination of personal exemptions, state tax and local property tax deductions, etc. Additionally, the more we learn, the more we realize that this purported tax reform plan will disproportionately help the upper class and corporations, at the expense of the middle class, particularly in high cost states.

My point here is that I fail to see how the deficit hawks will support any sort of plan that isn't revenue neutral, and any plan to remove the aforementioned deductions will be blasted by all the middle-class advocates, particularly those in high-cost states.

If tax reform goes down in flames, which I think it will, and interest rates continue to be raised (talk of December being next), isn't this the perfect storm to a massive correction in the markets?

Thoughts? Comments?

Traders trade up and down markets. Investors buy and hold. Really silly to predict this stuff.