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Are US markets like oil,index, and commodity markets rigged
- Thread starter brokenmarkets
- Start date
Quote from NoDoji:
You are CLUELESS! Do you know what CLUELESS means? It means "having no clue whatsoever to help solve a mystery". The mystery for you is trading.
Day traders do not move the market. There is plenty of volume without day traders. Institutional investors move the market.
And why do you care if price moves because of a short squeeze or because institutional investors want to buy stocks or commodities, or want to hedge positions?
Day traders only care that price moves. Price stagnating is no good. It must move. Why it moves and which direction it moves is irrelevant.
Do you know why price moves up? Because more market participants want to buy something than want to sell it.
Does it matter why more of them want to buy? No.
Either they're afraid it's going higher against them (short squeeze) or they're afraid it's going higher without them. It's just the opposite when price moves down.
This is a site for professional traders or those that would like to become professional traders. What is the point of your posts here?
I think a little humility is in order here. As Cheese has just explained, very few have any experience of dealing size in the futures markets, either as principal or agent. Fewer still have a comprehensive understanding of forecasting market liquidity. It is not for you to be giving pat reasons for "why markets move".
Unfortunately whenever an experienced market operator attempts to raise the level of discussion, the interaction degenerates into illogical comments, silly assumptions, and textbook generalities. It is quite clear that few bother to engage brain and cogitate on what is written.
Whatever level you are at in your trading, the possibility for improvement always exists. That is until you stop thinking for yourself and stop critically evaluating ideas.
Further, I don't see why you are discouraging others from having their own thoughts. If people wanted textbook answers they have the opportunity to access them from other sources rather than you. While I am sure you are happy with your own level of progress and success, I do not see why you would impose on others.
There are a handful of people worth listening to here. Their advice is indispensable for newbies and committed aspirants alike, and is recognised for its value by fellow market professionals at all levels. It is saddening to see these contributions be overlooked in favour of "LOLs", smiley faces, and warmed over cliches.
I'm not going to waste time highlighting where you have gone wrong in your comments, but this will be obvious to the thoughtful reader. To the slightly less self aware posters here - when something out of the ordinary is posted, it may help your bottom line to pay attention and think critically.
The vast majority of people here succumb to serious errors of judgement, the root of these errors is not knowing what you do not know.
Cheese is spot on in his posts on the time-frame that he is referring to. Indeed, the volume required to hold a level of support or resistance in the commonly traded futures (eg ES, NQ, CL, etc..) for a full day is staggering. Any attempt by a single institution to do so, is speculation at it's core.
That is not to say that a large size trader doesn't have an advantage over the retail amateur with the same strat. For example, there is a very defined support level on ES. The assumption is that if it breaks, there will be a fast drop of at least 10 points. ES moves down and stalls at support so the amateur anticipates the breakdown and shorts 10 contracts which weren't even a blip on the radar. Support then holds and dip buyers pile in causing a touch of the amateur's stop.
OTOH, ES stalls at the same point and the strat of the pro firm is identical to the amateur. But instead of the 10 lot sell order, the CPO enters a 4000 lot sell. In ES that is usually enough to cause a move of 3 ticks or so. This 3 ticks would be inconsequential but for the masses of traders waiting for a break of that support level. The CPO has then succeeded in starting the snowball rolling down the hill.
Is this a "rigged" market then? Absolutely not. All he can do is simply persuade the underlying a few ticks in one direction. This might or might not have the effect of recruiting others to act in favor of his directional bias if timed correctly. This certainly gives him that distinct advantage, but it carries along with it significant disadvantages also. The skillful amateur is much more nimble.
Much like in football, the larger players seemingly have a huge advantage in molding the outcome of the game. The game isn't rigged. That is just an aspect of the game that is fully understood by all participants. They are at a similar disadvantage when Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, or Devin Hester have the ball.
That is not to say that a large size trader doesn't have an advantage over the retail amateur with the same strat. For example, there is a very defined support level on ES. The assumption is that if it breaks, there will be a fast drop of at least 10 points. ES moves down and stalls at support so the amateur anticipates the breakdown and shorts 10 contracts which weren't even a blip on the radar. Support then holds and dip buyers pile in causing a touch of the amateur's stop.
OTOH, ES stalls at the same point and the strat of the pro firm is identical to the amateur. But instead of the 10 lot sell order, the CPO enters a 4000 lot sell. In ES that is usually enough to cause a move of 3 ticks or so. This 3 ticks would be inconsequential but for the masses of traders waiting for a break of that support level. The CPO has then succeeded in starting the snowball rolling down the hill.
Is this a "rigged" market then? Absolutely not. All he can do is simply persuade the underlying a few ticks in one direction. This might or might not have the effect of recruiting others to act in favor of his directional bias if timed correctly. This certainly gives him that distinct advantage, but it carries along with it significant disadvantages also. The skillful amateur is much more nimble.
Much like in football, the larger players seemingly have a huge advantage in molding the outcome of the game. The game isn't rigged. That is just an aspect of the game that is fully understood by all participants. They are at a similar disadvantage when Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, or Devin Hester have the ball.