Quote from Random.Capital:
Even more than cheap commodities, it depends on cheap fuel. China is already subsidizing internal oil sales at rates as high as $70/barrel - completely unsustainable - at that level they would exhaust their massive USD reserves in two years.
Over the next ten years, industries that have moved off-shore will start to return. And that includes big ones, like steel producers.
Perhaps it would be easier if you imagined globalization as a social phenomenon rather than viewing it through purely economic eyes.
Both can be observed and to some degree both can be measured, but predicting social phenomena is a worthless task.
It is quite possible that industry will migrate to US shores sometime in the future,but it will not be because it returns ... it will be because US has moved on and therefore the conditions have changed ... most likely robots and AI will be responsible for bringing production closer to the markets but they will not improve employment ... that must be brought about by other set of changing conditions.
Globalization is occurring because of an imbalance on our little planet.
Consumption should equal production [give or take a little fluctuation in inventory]
On a country by country basis, this balance has been rationalized away by elected people whose priorities clearly lie in maintaining self interest.
There appears to be no chance of any change to this direction and current US thinking is a clear indication of this.
Despite the biggest peace time shake-up to the economy in eighty years, there is no change to the policies that lead the US into such a disgraceful mess.
The same mind set applies to EU, UK, Aust, China, Japan, ME and many other countries.
Therefore it is entirely reasonable to assume that the optimum unit for establishing balance cannot have a political base and as such it cannot be a country.
That then leaves us with our little planet being the smallest optimum unit that can achieve balance.
This entirely rational conclusion naturally brings us to globalization and eventual balance ... one currency is an essential cornerstone of this balance.
No ...It is not economics that propels this move ... it is quite simply that the weakness of human self interest is blinding too many people to their own stupidity.
