Are there pullback systems that backtest well?

I have to say, a good source of documentation about pullbacks and how they backtest is my new book: "Trade Like a Hedge Fund"
 
Quote from Vishnu:

I have to say, a good source of documentation about pullbacks and how they backtest is my new book: "Trade Like a Hedge Fund"
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On it's way from Amazon.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

If I understand what you are saying, price projections, at least the ones based on eigenvalues/vectors and projecting price onto the orthogonal vectors, are a linear transform and will get you nowhere, or I should say, never got me anywhere.

nitro
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That is about right.
When you have stated that you are doing your analysis the way you have never seen done before, I was trying to tell you that as long as you do your TA in 2dimensional mode, everything is just a variation of already known TA methods. So results will be similar .
It is necessary to view market as 3dimensional creature to be able to do TA truly differently. I know that you are very knowledgeable and you might be one of a few who are able to try to understand that. Otherwise I would not even post it .
 
Quote from opmtrader:

Here's a start for you pullback players. Let me know if it tests well on the SPX.

Interesting implication for our current market scenario.
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Hi opmtrader,

I'm not quite sure about the vertical scale of your equity curve. You only show 5000. On more value figure would greatly help.

Thx.
 
GANN,

I have nothing to add to your fine post. Amazing how limited we are by our tools.

nitro


Quote from WDGann:

Actually, funny thing is I don't trust backtest purely...

If I wanted to make a "pure" "objectively for back-tested performance", I can make different kinds of 100% profitability( no breakeven trades, also doesn't matter what the style of the system is... scalp, pullback, swing, trending etc. etc.). Every software has it's limatations. Now, understanding the platform fully (or at least to a large extent) is equally important as the underlying concept of the software.

So... taking it to the extreme...

I have a platform that works great on long term trend following systems (uhh... realistically Wealth-Lab). But when it comes to intraday market... let's say intraday swings... others do better (let's say... Tradestation 2000i)... When it comes to scalping there are others (I haven't met a good retailed one but it can be programmed)...

But each system will have flaws of it's own based on the user's needs.

If you're doing EOD with different symbols, the WL is great but the signals are slow and doesn't give them out real-time especially if the orders are triggered within a bar... like a stop order has to wait till the bar ends.

If you're doing swings TS2000i is better but it can only test one symbol at a time. Single symbol money management can be tested but who the hell cares... or what kind of a dumbass thinks like that these day... ... ... ... oh sorry, you suck if you think like that... LOL

Well, let's say I get a scalping platform. One of the likely problems would be that it'll be very slow. And the data size required to test these will be massive. The database / network / hardware management would be critical and would requrie to have the software completely dedicated to the task, making it unefficient when you do the other kinds of tests....

Etc. etc....

Anyways, whether it's the platform, system or indicators, or the symbol, it's very important to know what the hell you're doing, as clearly as possible. If you don't have that... it's the same thing as a newbie discretionary trader trying to trade without a plan of any sort = disaster...
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You know,

It is funny that you should say that. I have an idea for just for using a 3D "view" of the markets. But every time I try to use some of my math background in anything but the most trivial way, the markets just hands me a bunch of losers in backtest.

But I am getting better at it.

Thanks for the kind words.

nitro
Quote from Walther:

...It is necessary to view market as 3dimensional creature to be able to do TA truly differently.
More...
 
Nothing astonishing backtests have much chance to be bullshit for statistical reason as answered to another post here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=29108

Re: Confidence based on a couple O' points....


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from amigasearch:

Lets say you develop a system, that relies on, a certain theory you have (dont we all).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Not all theories are equivalent, if your theory is to use stochastic indicators you will have the same problem than with classical time series so that backtest will reflect the past and not the future so nothing astonishing that backtest is not reliable then.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=28808

Quote from WDGann:

Actually, funny thing is I don't trust backtest purely...

If I wanted to make a "pure" "objectively for back-tested performance", I can make different kinds of 100% profitability( no breakeven trades, also doesn't matter what the style of the system is... scalp, pullback, swing, trending etc. etc.). Every software has it's limatations. Now, understanding the platform fully (or at least to a large extent) is equally important as the underlying concept of the software.

So... taking it to the extreme...

I have a platform that works great on long term trend following systems (uhh... realistically Wealth-Lab). But when it comes to intraday market... let's say intraday swings... others do better (let's say... Tradestation 2000i)... When it comes to scalping there are others (I haven't met a good retailed one but it can be programmed)...

But each system will have flaws of it's own based on the user's needs.

If you're doing EOD with different symbols, the WL is great but the signals are slow and doesn't give them out real-time especially if the orders are triggered within a bar... like a stop order has to wait till the bar ends.

If you're doing swings TS2000i is better but it can only test one symbol at a time. Single symbol money management can be tested but who the hell cares... or what kind of a dumbass thinks like that these day... ... ... ... oh sorry, you suck if you think like that... LOL

Well, let's say I get a scalping platform. One of the likely problems would be that it'll be very slow. And the data size required to test these will be massive. The database / network / hardware management would be critical and would requrie to have the software completely dedicated to the task, making it unefficient when you do the other kinds of tests....

Etc. etc....

Anyways, whether it's the platform, system or indicators, or the symbol, it's very important to know what the hell you're doing, as clearly as possible. If you don't have that... it's the same thing as a newbie discretionary trader trying to trade without a plan of any sort = disaster...
More...
 
Quote from WDGann:

Actually, funny thing is I don't trust backtest purely...

If I wanted to make a "pure" "objectively for back-tested performance", I can make different kinds of 100% profitability( no breakeven trades, also doesn't matter what the style of the system is... scalp, pullback, swing, trending etc. etc.). Every software has it's limatations. Now, understanding the platform fully (or at least to a large extent) is equally important as the underlying concept of the software.

So... taking it to the extreme...

I have a platform that works great on long term trend following systems (uhh... realistically Wealth-Lab). But when it comes to intraday market... let's say intraday swings... others do better (let's say... Tradestation 2000i)... When it comes to scalping there are others (I haven't met a good retailed one but it can be programmed)...

But each system will have flaws of it's own based on the user's needs.

If you're doing EOD with different symbols, the WL is great but the signals are slow and doesn't give them out real-time especially if the orders are triggered within a bar... like a stop order has to wait till the bar ends.

If you're doing swings TS2000i is better but it can only test one symbol at a time. Single symbol money management can be tested but who the hell cares... or what kind of a dumbass thinks like that these day... ... ... ... oh sorry, you suck if you think like that... LOL

Well, let's say I get a scalping platform. One of the likely problems would be that it'll be very slow. And the data size required to test these will be massive. The database / network / hardware management would be critical and would requrie to have the software completely dedicated to the task, making it unefficient when you do the other kinds of tests....

Etc. etc....

Anyways, whether it's the platform, system or indicators, or the symbol, it's very important to know what the hell you're doing, as clearly as possible. If you don't have that... it's the same thing as a newbie discretionary trader trying to trade without a plan of any sort = disaster...
More...

Hey Gann,

As you are saying something about my backgarden, I have a few questions. You say:
" When it comes to scalping there are others (I haven't met a good retailed one but it can be programmed)..."

OK. I follow you. If you say that a good one can be programmed, I understand you did this and you have it going with "good" results. How else do I have to understand your "can" be programmed? But why then the need to still acquire something that you know isn't going to work well? Indeed you say once more:

"Well, let's say I get a scalping platform. One of the likely problems would be that it'll be very slow. And the data size required to test these will be massive. The database / network / hardware management would be critical and would requrie to have the software completely dedicated to the task, making it unefficient when you do the other kinds of tests...."

What does a poor fellow like nononsense have to make of all this?
 
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