Are there indicators that help spot breakouts?
- Thread starter crgarcia
- Start date
Quote from ehorn:
Hehe, You just may have answered the question to the thread title... :eek:
Though I do not believe he would call it a "grail" or that he is "warning" anyone... Just giving a gift. In return they help out with the knowledge and profits obtained. And it is not that complicated. You just have to be willing to do the work. And, imho, most people are just too dam lazy.
Then again, you may just be being silly... I cannot tell and do not particulary care. I will just "Do The Work"... as they say.
ehorn.... if you found a gold mine all to yourself somewhere in the mountains while hiking, would you go to town to recruit people to go up to the mountains to help you carry the gold out??
theres no right or wrong answer to this.
as for me, i would shoot a squirrel just for looking at my gold.
you needed to have seen the movie to get the joke
Your naiveté is astounding. Have you ever wondered why Jack won't put on a public display of his 3X daily range claim? Or post audited proof of his claims of trading grandiosity? Have you ever wondered where all the Hershey foundations and charities are? Have you ever wondered why Jack is not nationally known and not on the Forbes list? Have you ever wondered why the few things Jack has mistakenly been clear about don't test out? Have you ever wondered why Jack has been posting the same crap for over 10 years and why he has thousands of posts here? Etc., etc., etc.
P.S. ehorn -- this may help you:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582&#post1940582
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582&#post1940582
There are more price increasing signals (0 to 1) than price decreasing signals (1 to 0) and entries are only on price increasing (0 to 1). So we see an average loss of 16 bucks because there are not enough price decreasing signals (1 to 0)
You get your equity curve (it shows net losses after entering on price increases and a time out exit in five days). So this proves to you the P, V relationship does not work.
Getting a 16 dollar av loss after entering on increasing price raises a question or two.
What does the 16 dollars represent is still unanswered.
Possible answers are a 1 share trade, a round lot trade, or anther amount of shares.
Using 1 share, 16 bucks in 5 days for 24,000 trades seems very large. To make this a 10% loss the share value would have to be 160 at the beginning. If the average share value is 32, the 16 bucks represents a 50% loss in value for 24,000 trades over a three year period. This would make 1929 or 9/11 look like child's play.
We may be able to conclude it was not a 1 share trade used for the 24,000 trades.
Let's look at a round lot. The 16 bucks for a round lot is 16 cents a share price change in 5 days. This is a flat price scenario. What is called a statisitically insignificant change in price for almost any stock Value per share. 24,000 trades of 100 shares each where 16 cents is he average change per share.
So in either the 1 share case (where we beat 1929) or the round lot case (where we get 16 cents a share over 5 days which is flat trading), the equity curve result you got is meaningless.
At this point I and other have spend a couple of years asking about the basis of the equity curve. We got a brickwall of no responses.
If I were handing out your posts in a class at Wharton one evening to guys getting MBA's paid for their companies, what would happen? They would all volunteer to duplicate your posts, IMMEDIATELY.
Why?
these guys can IMMEDIATELY see why I ask you for the bsis of the curve. The basis is missing. we had to pry out of you the exit rule of your back test. You said five days was best. BEST meant???? LOL We know.
So why didn't anyone duplicate your backtest. Now you know.
There is no case of share amounts that works.
Remember when Regan used the wrong side of the Laffler curves to make the US the greatest debtor nation in the world? LOL what a screw up your backtesting is.
Check out the freak out graphs you posted in the PA trading journal. LOL.