Are there any moving average systems that don't involve picking a time period?
- Thread starter CyJackX
- Start date
Thanks for clarifying.
I can only think of price events or news catalyst events as a starting/changing point to track price, possibly with an ma. Will you be shedding any further light on this short post?
I can. Without going into details, a retail intraday trader has no chance unless he/she can maneuver within a freight train effect (high volatility) which is almost always triggered by news. Asymmetry is what you're looking for.
To expand:
1) We can analyze market data in clock time or event time.
2) Even in the case of event time (and of course in clock time), we can dynamically tune the period of our moving average (lookback) to whatever we think will be the most meaningful contributor to our signal at present. It goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway) that you should have a good understanding of why your adjustments are more than just an exercise in bad curve fitting.
1) We can analyze market data in clock time or event time.
2) Even in the case of event time (and of course in clock time), we can dynamically tune the period of our moving average (lookback) to whatever we think will be the most meaningful contributor to our signal at present. It goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway) that you should have a good understanding of why your adjustments are more than just an exercise in bad curve fitting.
I've once seen one (it's described in some detail in a book by Van K. Tharp, and includes more than a decade's "evidence").
This reminds me of the statistical methods used by pharmaceutical companies in performing and publishing the clinical trials necessary to apply for product licences. Typically, if a new drug doesn't actually "work better" than the existing ones, out of every 10 or 20 clinical trials they do to test it, one will produce an "outlier result" adducing evidence that it does. That can be the one they choose to publish. So there's sometimes "genuine evidence" of something that isn't actually true, just "by coincidence". This serves as a reminder that the published information one reads may have been pre-selected by other people to illustrate something they want to illustrate.
I agree, of course, that moving averages are not really, in any meaningful sense of the words, a "predictive indicator"!
May I suggest to the OP that he explore using a moving average system that utilizes multiple time frames ?
That will clearly give him far better chances.
And reading Marcel Link's book High Probability Trading would be a very good place to start.