Are there any Jim Rogers' fans here?
- Thread starter jbtrader23
- Start date
He was long for most of the 90s. Even though he was "bearish", he was long a collection of stocks he thought were cheap. I remember a Barrons interview in 96 IIRC, where he called himself a "fully invested bear". And don't forget, the US market in the late 90s *was* an irrational financial bubble, so I can quite understand a value investor not playing it. Buffett didn't either.
However, I do agree that he has an irrational permabear outlook on the US. One should ignore everything he says about the dollar or the US stockmarket. For everything else, I find him very good. The only other guy doing similar stuff is Marc Faber, who not coincidentally has similar irrational anti-US prejudices.
I'm not sure what it is about global macro pundits that makes them such US permabears. Nevertheless, I ignore their prognostication for the US, and utilise their often insightful and fairly unbiased views on the rest of the world's asset markets. In fact, one of the most reliable buy signals for the dollar and S&P is when guys like Rogers, Faber and Fleckenstein admit the selling is overdone.
Actually his commodity call was incredibly badly timed - he said to buy, and then within a year commodities got steamrollered by the Asia crisis. But for those flexible enough to realise that half the world's population going from prosperity to penury in 18 months might impact on the demand for raw materials, this simply provided another good trading opportunity. And of course it provided even better prices to buy commodities in late 98 and 99. I do remember him saying "oil is a triple" when it was hovering above $10. That was a great call.
I would dearly love to see Jim Rogers trading statements for 97 and 98. I suspect he simply averaged down, sat on his ass, and got even cheaper prices. After all, this is a guy who sold gold short at $600 and watched it go to $850, and didn't bat an eyelid. But this was not the optimal way to trade in 97/98.
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Like Jim Rogers & may be perhaps overly favorably toward
Jack Schwager 3 top trader books interview list.
A relative sent me an interesting article about which he made some
excellant bullish probability calls on Chile & Uruguay, at the time when mainstream media was bashing, inaccurate as usual -Argentina.
Would rather do business with airlines than go long much thier stock but;
interesting IBD, & charts support LFL[low vol, high % Chile airline]
Dont know if Jim meant to prove it , with'' Bankruptcy 1995'';
but sound s like he did prove ,
its not about prediction.
Even if he didnt prove much with that book;
he proved its not about market prediction.
He predicted a new era in Natural Resources at the beginning of the year, i waited for a pullback and still got smoked on steel.
Oh yeah, he doesnt have to be right, its for the "long term" 20 years. Conveniently he trumps what worked after 10 years and forgets what didnt.
Oh yeah, he doesnt have to be right, its for the "long term" 20 years. Conveniently he trumps what worked after 10 years and forgets what didnt.