Are there any human traders left?
- Thread starter kamm
- Start date
For those who worry about this, think of it this way. If your strategy had a positive expectancy before the age of robot algos, it was because your strategy took money away from another set of traders who had a strategy with a negative expectancy.
OK, now just picture that same set of traders implementing their net negative expectancy strategy as an algo, rather than manually. If your strategy still works, it should still take money from that set of traders, regardless of whether those traders are trading their net negative expectancy strategy manually or via an algo. How did those traders get the capital to create and deploy the algo? The same way they got the capital to lose in the pre-algo days.
If you can't make money now even though you did before, it's because the traders from whom you used to take money are gone. You either need to learn how to take money from a different set of traders or, like a pack of animals which has lost its hunting ground, you have to move on to another hunting ground.
At the end of the day, in a zero-sum game, you are either the negative part of the zero-sum or the positive part. How you implement your strategy (algo, robot, manually or smoke signals) is secondary to your strategy being smarter than at least 1 other person in the marketplace you're trying to profit from.
It's like the old joke about the two guys running from a bear, with the guy who's behind his friend saying "You can't outrun this bear" and the friend replying "I don't have to. I only have to outrun you". You don't have to outrun every algo, you only have to outrun one. If you can't do that, well, then you are no longer suited for trading.
It's really that simple.
OK, now just picture that same set of traders implementing their net negative expectancy strategy as an algo, rather than manually. If your strategy still works, it should still take money from that set of traders, regardless of whether those traders are trading their net negative expectancy strategy manually or via an algo. How did those traders get the capital to create and deploy the algo? The same way they got the capital to lose in the pre-algo days.
If you can't make money now even though you did before, it's because the traders from whom you used to take money are gone. You either need to learn how to take money from a different set of traders or, like a pack of animals which has lost its hunting ground, you have to move on to another hunting ground.
At the end of the day, in a zero-sum game, you are either the negative part of the zero-sum or the positive part. How you implement your strategy (algo, robot, manually or smoke signals) is secondary to your strategy being smarter than at least 1 other person in the marketplace you're trying to profit from.
It's like the old joke about the two guys running from a bear, with the guy who's behind his friend saying "You can't outrun this bear" and the friend replying "I don't have to. I only have to outrun you". You don't have to outrun every algo, you only have to outrun one. If you can't do that, well, then you are no longer suited for trading.
It's really that simple.
That's the problem with trading, the fact that us humans are all against each other, in any other field you would get help, we would god forbid actually be on the same side and help each other, but instead no one REALLY helps anyone else(other than basic BS) because in the trading world we are taking each others money off each other.
So when the HFT aren't taking us out, we are taking each other out.
We'd rather laugh and point at someone who loses money consistently instead of helping them and showing each other these "patterns" that are supposedly so obvious with HFT. Guess that's why there's patterns in the first place, we're so predictable right
I tend to agree in that I see HFT being all that is trading in a few years time, but it's the same in most industries really, everything becoming more computerised, doing jobs that humans used to do, and in much cheaper, faster, more efficient ways, which is probably why in the future we will be completely useless......unless you have an IT/Programming degree.......or do jobs that no one else wants to do(cleaning, fixing/repairs etc...)
We are our own worst enemy. Some adapt, some don't.
So when the HFT aren't taking us out, we are taking each other out.
We'd rather laugh and point at someone who loses money consistently instead of helping them and showing each other these "patterns" that are supposedly so obvious with HFT. Guess that's why there's patterns in the first place, we're so predictable right
I tend to agree in that I see HFT being all that is trading in a few years time, but it's the same in most industries really, everything becoming more computerised, doing jobs that humans used to do, and in much cheaper, faster, more efficient ways, which is probably why in the future we will be completely useless......unless you have an IT/Programming degree.......or do jobs that no one else wants to do(cleaning, fixing/repairs etc...)
We are our own worst enemy. Some adapt, some don't.
Quote from shopster:
are we voting...........i second that motion...........
looks like DELUSIONAL PARANOID SCHIZOPHRENIC SYMPTOMS
s
To say the least! Is that what an "IVY" learns at HEEHAAAWWWWWVERD?
Quote from booked:
That's the problem with trading, the fact that us humans are all against each other, in any other field you would get help, we would god forbid actually be on the same side and help each other, but instead no one REALLY helps anyone else(other than basic BS) because in the trading world we are taking each others money off each other.
So when the HFT aren't taking us out, we are taking each other out.
We'd rather laugh and point at someone who loses money consistently instead of helping them and showing each other these "patterns" that are supposedly so obvious with HFT. Guess that's why there's patterns in the first place, we're so predictable right
I tend to agree in that I see HFT being all that is trading in a few years time, but it's the same in most industries really, everything becoming more computerised, doing jobs that humans used to do, and in much cheaper, faster, more efficient ways, which is probably why in the future we will be completely useless......unless you have an IT/Programming degree.......or do jobs that no one else wants to do(cleaning, fixing/repairs etc...)
We are our own worst enemy. Some adapt, some don't.
Updated Gordon Gekko:
"You want a friendly algo? Get a robot dog."
If your strategy is being hurt by HFT, chances are it is not a good strategy to trade. I am not affected at all by HFT in ES, matter of fact, I find often it helps propel my position to targets much faster.
Trading has always come down to adapting to market patterns, and if one says other, they best trade mutual funds.
Trading has always come down to adapting to market patterns, and if one says other, they best trade mutual funds.
Just look at the US demographics and median household income levels at certain geographic areas....luxury cars still sell (perhaps used), homes have many cash buyers...take my word for it....
...there are lots of savvy speculators not too many "traders", if you see the distinction. Many recently unemployed semiretired people are savvy "active" traders/investors and the number is growing. Some have sizable savings and retirement funds. They are not the full time, day trader type so many on ET do not understand them, they seldom come here they are on the golf course or Yangtze river cruising in china. They usually CPA's, business owners etc, who are frugal with their money, they save, invest and trade. I am in this group....
I am trading silver exclusively and I do not need to look at my monitor too much. I was long got short and now I am getting back into silver under 30/ounce.
The distinctive marks of these people,
1) not too active (commission + over trading kills
2) not many are stock pickers in fact most are not - they trade on vanguard 1+ or fidelity (second choice)
3) not very leveraged usually zero to very small (leverage also kills)
4) they listen and subscribe to Bob Brinker's money letter and radio program on Sunday. Wager to guess Brinker's audience on the radio newsletter? There are quite a few....
...there are lots of savvy speculators not too many "traders", if you see the distinction. Many recently unemployed semiretired people are savvy "active" traders/investors and the number is growing. Some have sizable savings and retirement funds. They are not the full time, day trader type so many on ET do not understand them, they seldom come here they are on the golf course or Yangtze river cruising in china. They usually CPA's, business owners etc, who are frugal with their money, they save, invest and trade. I am in this group....
I am trading silver exclusively and I do not need to look at my monitor too much. I was long got short and now I am getting back into silver under 30/ounce.
The distinctive marks of these people,
1) not too active (commission + over trading kills
2) not many are stock pickers in fact most are not - they trade on vanguard 1+ or fidelity (second choice)
3) not very leveraged usually zero to very small (leverage also kills)
4) they listen and subscribe to Bob Brinker's money letter and radio program on Sunday. Wager to guess Brinker's audience on the radio newsletter? There are quite a few....