If Obama died I'd predict an immediate 50pt SPX break on the news and then a 200pt rally as soon as everyone figured out how bullish the news truly was.
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Are there any BULLISH "black swans"?
- Thread starter himself
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Being a trader involves thinking ahead.
Who would be easier to defeat, Obama or Biden?
Who has less populist "muscle" to usher in a leftest agenda?
Who had a few pro-business votes in Senate-particularly on banking? (remember the role of Delaware as an incorporation mecca)
So even though Biden is also a problem he's far less of a problem.
Who would be easier to defeat, Obama or Biden?
Who has less populist "muscle" to usher in a leftest agenda?
Who had a few pro-business votes in Senate-particularly on banking? (remember the role of Delaware as an incorporation mecca)
So even though Biden is also a problem he's far less of a problem.
Quote from bit:
I'm no fan of Obama, but Biden as POTUS would be bullish? Could you please explain that to me?
Quote from himself:
Unexpected bad news, war, assination, terrorist attack might cause the market to tank and could badly hurt a long position.
On the other hand, are there any "black swans" that could cause the market to explode upward and hurt a short position?
I'm thinking of something more explosive than the monthly employment report, fed meeting,etc.
[And yes, I realize there might be "black swans" that are there but are totally invisible.]
elimination of capital gains taxes in US for one year as an example. any major positive tax change could cause a huge spike upward in the market. take a look at the market in china and you'll see several examples of white swans - if you want to call them that, which was basically gov't intervention causing their market to rip upward very quickly.
i'm hoping someone will wise up and propose that one of these days in the US instead of the opposite.
These things tend to be more common in commodities, though. What if a new major oil discovery was found in kentucky, nullifying our dependence on foreign oil - i think that would send the market flying. These hypothetical scenarios are too numerous to mention though. generally it's true that large unexpected moves tend to be to the downside, just how it is - probably has a lot to do with human nature.
Quote from cmdtytrdr:
elimination of capital gains taxes in US for one year as an example. any major positive tax change could cause a huge spike upward in the market. take a look at the market in china and you'll see several examples of white swans - if you want to call them that, which was basically gov't intervention causing their market to rip upward very quickly.
i'm hoping someone will wise up and propose that one of these days in the US instead of the opposite.
These things tend to be more common in commodities, though. What if a new major oil discovery was found in kentucky, nullifying our dependence on foreign oil - i think that would send the market flying. These hypothetical scenarios are too numerous to mention though. generally it's true that large unexpected moves tend to be to the downside, just how it is - probably has a lot to do with human nature.
To generate that kind of momentum, most people need to be caught on the "wrong side."
In the equity market there are almost always far more longs than shorts, so "black swans" tend to be negative events that induce many people to sell out. A good example of a bullish black swan is the VW-Porsche thing that happened awhile back, when good news combined with a huge imbalance to the short side led to a massive spike.
Quote from Specterx:
To generate that kind of momentum, most people need to be caught on the "wrong side."
In the equity market there are almost always far more longs than shorts, so "black swans" tend to be negative events that induce many people to sell out. A good example of a bullish black swan is the VW-Porsche thing that happened awhile back, when good news combined with a huge imbalance to the short side led to a massive spike.
Exactly what Spec said. There can't really be a bullish black swan unless somehow everyone was net short, including retail who probably don't even know what shorting is.
i guess everyone forgot about the surprise rate cut back in 2001 that caused the nasdaq to surge 14% in a day?