I’m aware that the market is always changing but are the same patterns that are present today around 20 years ago?
Are the patterns you see today in the market any different than 20 years ago?
- Thread starter BearTrades
- Start date
What’s the problem?
good question -
the only thing that does not change is human emotions - greed to chase, and fear to panic sell.
that said, the environment is very different.... if you actually meant 20 years ago, that puts us in 1999, where the yield picture was very different, the 10 year was at about 6%, today is about 3%... so for anyone who worries about a bubble, it's the bond bubble you need to worry.... or if you think the Fed is going to guarantee low rates, then we need DOW 40000 to be even close to bubble territory.
I have also posted before... the 1999 run was fueled by demand... there was no lack of IPOs, but people were so excited about online trading and seeing internet stocks going up 50 points a day, all the money rushed in.
Today's run is more driven by supply, so far... the central banks have been buying for years... corporations have been canceling shares for years.... the IPO market isn't crazy... and the demand has been fairly flat as investors are still scared by 2000 and 2008.... so just a steady inflow is enough to push the shares higher... when I say 'inflow', dont confuse this with mutual fund in/out flow... that is dumb money flow... the dumb money is still on the sidelines.... the smart money has been quietly gathering.
I appreciate it.
Mostly agree.
"Things" are still the same except for the markets now being in the short term, faster and more volatile.
I remember years ago somebody claiming, "to be really good at trading, you've got to be able to size-up the situation and get your trade off within 15 seconds". There is some truth to that.
That said, the same principle applies to longer term setups and trades. You need to be disciplined and attentive to catch even larger swing trades well. You can trade your ETFs from daily charts (rather than the 5-minute charts of day traders), but you'd better be paying attention every day.
There are $Billions/$Trillions traded daily in the world's markets. Big players want to get a chunk of that and are willing to spend LOTS of money on the logistics and for the talent that reaquires. As a retail screen jockey, YOU ARE COMPETING AGAINST ALL OF THAT! You can still prevail and be successful, but you're not going to do so if you pussy-foot around with your learning and how you behave.
"Things" are still the same except for the markets now being in the short term, faster and more volatile.
I remember years ago somebody claiming, "to be really good at trading, you've got to be able to size-up the situation and get your trade off within 15 seconds". There is some truth to that.
That said, the same principle applies to longer term setups and trades. You need to be disciplined and attentive to catch even larger swing trades well. You can trade your ETFs from daily charts (rather than the 5-minute charts of day traders), but you'd better be paying attention every day.
There are $Billions/$Trillions traded daily in the world's markets. Big players want to get a chunk of that and are willing to spend LOTS of money on the logistics and for the talent that reaquires. As a retail screen jockey, YOU ARE COMPETING AGAINST ALL OF THAT! You can still prevail and be successful, but you're not going to do so if you pussy-foot around with your learning and how you behave.
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I see no major changes from 20 years ago even if algos dominate. After all those algos are programmed by people.
If there were easy-to-discern patterns 20 years ago that were still present today, we'd have a lot more billionaire traders. And contrary to what some are saying, there was a lot of computerized trading 20 years ago--the algos weren't as sophisticated, but it was there...even going back the 1987 crash.
lol.right