Are share prices random?

[Pabst]

Originally posted by OPTIONAL777

I can predict that if I say a girl's ass is fat I won't get any of it .

Just tell her you mean, good fat, like JLO.

BTW- Great post

 

[schlepers]

Hey dude, you stole my quote! I have your signature on my monitor. Great minds think alike.

Originally posted by OPTIONAL777
Having spent countless hours watching the behavior of ants and their movement, I can truly say that ant movement is entirely random. I can't figure out what the hell they are doing. You would think they would go for the fruit, but they go for the water in the sink. You would think if I killed them, they would spread the message and never return.....Wrong!!!!

I just can't figure out those ants and what they are going to do from one day to the next.

However, if I watch ant movement during a very brief interval, and the is ant is headed towards the sink, or away from the bug spray, I can pretty well predict which direction he will continue to move in for a brief period of time.

The study offered in this thread as proof of randomness was done on a closing to closing basis, not on intraday movement of an index of a stock.

We can pretty well predict what will happen to the price of stocks if there is a surprise rate cut once it is announced minutes before the market opens, and if announced during the trading day we can pretty well predict what will happen on the initial movement and where momentum may take it, but where it ends up is an unknown.

We can pretty well predict what the price of stocks will be near expiration date of options, as many do based on maximum pain numbers. There are other such studies.

I can pretty well predict that if I yell fire in a crowed theater, people will run, and I will go to jail.

I can predict that if I say a girl's ass is fat I won't get any of it .

So, while many things are indeed random---ant behavior, women's moods, GW Bush's thinking, many things are not.

 

[OPTIONAL777]

Originally posted by Pabst


Just tell her you mean, good fat, like JLO.

BTW- Great post

The burning question is: Did Puffy say her ass was too fat?

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by OPTIONAL777
Having spent countless hours watching the behavior of ants and their movement, I can truly say that ant movement is entirely random. I can't figure out what the hell they are doing. You would think they would go for the fruit, but they go for the water in the sink. You would think if I killed them, they would spread the message and never return.....Wrong!!!!

I just can't figure out those ants and what they are going to do from one day to the next.

However, if I watch ant movement during a very brief interval, and the is ant is headed towards the sink, or away from the bug spray, I can pretty well predict which direction he will continue to move in for a brief period of time.

lmao lmao lmao maybe i'm the only one who will find that funny....but i'm just picturing someone watching ants..trying to understand them. lol

 

[OPTIONAL777]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko

lmao lmao lmao maybe i'm the only one who will find that funny....but i'm just picturing someone watching ants..trying to understand them. lol

When I was a kid, I got an ant farm as a gift. You can't imagine how long I waited for those ants to grow something.

What a ripoff.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by OPTIONAL777


When I was a kid, I got an ant farm as a gift.

i have to admit, i actually once had an ant farm too. 2 things come to mind:

-i remember that you weren't supposed to just put any ants you could find in the farm. you ordered a special kind and they came in a tube via the mail. lol they must have had a fun trip.

-one interesting thing i remember is that the ants actually had a graveyard. whenever an ant died, it would be carried by another ant to an area where the other dead ants were.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quite frankly I look for price action and other patterns that aren't random.

____________________________

Geese,killer whales, spyders,marlins mostly aren't random.''You call it luck but what I call it is a small sample''- John Henry-trend follower,partial Marlins owner.[sports] Boston Globe-8/10/2002

________________

''Write down what you learned.'' M. Masters-marlin Fund-Jack Schwager

 

[jperl]

To bring this thread back to the center, here are four NASDAQ stocks whose number of updays(close to close) over the past 100 days is very low:

percent updays
LRCX 37%
TMPW 37
AAPL 36
LRCX 34

Question: Would this data influence your decision to short these stocks at the close of today? Or if your system tester suggested a long entry tomorrow, would the above info influence your decision not to take the long?

 

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by OPTIONAL777

I just can't figure out those ants and what they are going to do from one day to the next.

I bet Dr. Doolittle could have told you whassaaa....or maybe one o' those bearded entomologists from the Farside cartoons...

 

[darkhorse]

Originally posted by jperl

percent updays
LRCX 37%
TMPW 37
AAPL 36
LRCX 34

Question: Would this data influence your decision to short these stocks at the close of today? Or if your system tester suggested a long entry tomorrow, would the above info influence your decision not to take the long?

mu