Are pivots useful ?
- Thread starter fortuna
- Start date
Breakout,
Robert Krausz also has an interesting journal (#14 ) on John Jacksons "High Probabilty Fibanocci Zones". Essentialy, he did extensive research on the open in relation to the "Balance Point" (Pivot Point) and then backtested how often price would land inside one of his fib zones...
Anyone interested in the 28pg journal can find it here http://www.fibonaccitrader.com/journal_issue1/FTJ14.pdf
PEACE & Good-Specul8ting...
It's not mechanical by any means, and I didn't intend to give that impression. Fortuna was just looking for experiences and ideas.
But to your question, technically you are correct. But I was reluctant to take the "bounce" because the NQ had not yet closed the gap, and since the ES had, the odds were that the NQ would as well. And if it didn't, there were six hours left in the day. To the contrary, I would have been more likely to use that little pullback to go short if I wasn't already short, or to add another contract(s) to whatever short position I might already have.
For me, these trades must be absolutely clear. If they aren't clear, they carry too much baggage for me to be comfortable with them. I trade the ES and NQ together. I want them to be making higher highs together, lower lows together, hitting the same pivot levels (more or less) at the same time (more or less). I don't want a lot of extraordinarily wide bars, a lot of engulfing bars. And if I don't get these things, I have other options to play what's in front of me. If none of those options are appropriate for what I see, then I don't do anything except maybe set my alarms and go do something else.
I should also mention that I haven't found indicators to be of much use with this particular tactic. A sto will occasionally show a divergence at the right time, but not so often that you can depend on it. If anyone has had any better luck with some indicator or other, I'd like to know about it
I should also mention that I haven't found indicators to be of much use with this particular tactic. A sto will occasionally show a divergence at the right time, but not so often that you can depend on it. If anyone has had any better luck with some indicator or other, I'd like to know about it
Here is a screen shot of the difference between a 5 period and 20 period moving average. If the difference between the two is less than 0, then the bars are red and the blue line moves to -1. If the reverse is true then just the opposite happens. For help in identifying the strength of the moves I've also added trend lines at +/- .50.
Here is a screen shot of the difference between a 5 period and 20 period moving average. If the difference between the two is less than 0, then the bars are red and the blue line moves to -1. If the reverse is true then just the opposite happens. For help in identifying the strength of the moves I've also added trend lines at +/- .50.
Results are very good for the last 2 months.
Main drawback: when market is lazy and moving around its pivot line , the model is making a lot of small losses than can be big by the end of the day (my model considers some slippage).
Solution: I discover that this back and forth action is often around pivot line: it should be considered differently thqn the other lines: like no signals or if u have any ideas
I also ameliorated the model by having variable stop loss and signal entry with respect to previous day intrady volatility or average true range (I took that from turtles, any thought about that °
Main drawback: when market is lazy and moving around its pivot line , the model is making a lot of small losses than can be big by the end of the day (my model considers some slippage).
Solution: I discover that this back and forth action is often around pivot line: it should be considered differently thqn the other lines: like no signals or if u have any ideas
I also ameliorated the model by having variable stop loss and signal entry with respect to previous day intrady volatility or average true range (I took that from turtles, any thought about that °