Are pivots useful ? a statistical response

[newtoet]

Quote from funky:

kgharris....thanks, i was asked this a bunch of times and unfortunately when i started annotating the charts it became very clear what my strategy is.....so its a no go on the charts, sorry!

Funky, I am dissapointed to hear that. Good thing others don't think like you, or else there would be no sharing of ideas.

I think you might be too concerned about revealing your "strategy". Even if you put a strategy that works 100% of the time in front of people, 99% would probably lose money with it. Mostly because they try to add their own "tweaks", regardless of how it works.

I hope you reconsider. I would like to see how you trade. Otherwise, all your posts about how much you make off trading pivots are pretty meaningless.

Best of luck either way.

 

[JackDaniel]

Funky,

Don't care about your charts. That's your call either way. You are teaching me quite a bit as it is. Thanks for that.

But could you post today's (used today)
pivot numbers so I can see if my software is doing it correctly.
Or at least look at these and tell me.
Mine were:
s2 1021.38
s1 1026.50
p 1031.62
r1 1036.75
r2 1041.88

thanks,
jd

 

[funky]

Quote from JackDaniel:

Funky,

Don't care about your charts. That's your call either way. You are teaching me quite a bit as it is. Thanks for that.

But could you post today's (used today)
pivot numbers so I can see if my software is doing it correctly.
Or at least look at these and tell me.
Mine were:
s2 1021.38
s1 1026.50
p 1031.62
r1 1036.75
r2 1041.88

thanks,
jd

jd, thanks. i appreciate that.

go here for the calculations i use. i use mid-pivots along with the classical floor pivots.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21377

good luck!

 

[funky]

hello newtoet. thanks for the interest. while i haven't given the exact recipe for my trades, i think i have provided more than enough for everyone to go off of.

just plot the pivots and go back and watch the markets for the past year in your favorite backtesting software. see how price reacts to them, see what happens to the market when a pivot fails, etc... you will learn more than you could ever learn if i were to post my entries/exits.

there is no one 'right' way to trade pivots. while i tend to agree that probably most people would not even think about trading a proven method, i would rather not take the chance. its my future that we're talking about, and i'd rather not. besides, what suits me probably doesn't suit someone else -- finding a trading method is all about finding your personality.

Quote from newtoet:



Funky, I am dissapointed to hear that. Good thing others don't think like you, or else there would be no sharing of ideas.

I think you might be too concerned about revealing your "strategy". Even if you put a strategy that works 100% of the time in front of people, 99% would probably lose money with it. Mostly because they try to add their own "tweaks", regardless of how it works.

I hope you reconsider. I would like to see how you trade. Otherwise, all your posts about how much you make off trading pivots are pretty meaningless.

Best of luck either way.

 

[JackDaniel]

Breakout,

Thanks for the info, but curiously,
my final numbers for today's ES
are different from yours.
I've got:
Hi 1034.00
Lo 1023.50
Cl 1029.00

So I looked at the numbers from the entire ES trading time (including the overnight) and now I see your numbers, but if you use only the daytime numbers (930 to 415p) then they are the above numbers. Do people not use the above numbers...only the entire qlobex trading time numbers for pivots?

I've always been curious as to whether the big boys look at charts the show the overnight into the start of trading or do they look at stuff that ends at 415p and starts at 930a ?

jd

 

[Breakout]

Quote from JackDaniel:

Breakout,

Thanks for the info, but curiously,
my final numbers for today's ES
are different from yours.
I've got:
Hi 1034.00
Lo 1023.50
Cl 1029.00

So I looked at the numbers from the entire ES trading time (including the overnight) and now I see your numbers, but if you use only the daytime numbers (930 to 415p) then they are the above numbers. Do people not use the above numbers...only the entire qlobex trading time numbers for pivots?

I've always been curious as to whether the big boys look at charts the show the overnight into the start of trading or do they look at stuff that ends at 415p and starts at 930a ?

jd

Sorry, my fault. I just went to the link goforwand provided on page 7. I just noticed the the quotes are to 7:00 pm. So, you're numbers are right. Personally, I would only use the regular session, (9:30 to 4:15 EST)and I believe the majority of floor traders do, too. Good Eye!...

 

[Breakout]

Quote from JackDaniel:


pivot numbers so I can see if my software is doing it correctly.

Here's a new shot of fridays pivots for the ES...thanks JackDaniel!
Most people use the previous days (High+Low+Close/3). These are the main pivots you want to watch, because the majority use these.

Some like to use the previous days (High+Low+the next days open/3) and, the previous days(High+Low+Close+the next days open/4)

Here's a free calculator if you want it...good luck!

Bruce M's Most Excellent Calculator!

Also, this website looks like it offers some interesting products if you want to dig deeper into pivots.

 

[Breakout]

Also, here's a shot of funkys' spreadsheet so you can watch the
mid points tomorrow.

I'm not sure why, but funkys' R3 and S3 don't jive with my calculator...

I'd do em by hand, but I'm too lazy...hehe

 

[traderkay]

funky's sharing is actually high as compared to average ET level of sharing. he's not an AB.

 

[JackDaniel]

Funky,

When you talk about watching what the market does when a pivot fails, I'm not sure I understand what a pivot failure is by your def. For that matter, what would be a pivot success ?

I printed out the last 20 days of ES on five minute charts because in this case, I wanted to be able to set them out on the floor and go over them. Anyway, I'm certainly seeing stuff that's interesting, but at the same time, I'm seeing where one could have a very hard time deciding whether the bars were going to continue to and through a pivot or not make it and reverse or keep doing that over and over. Seems like there are many whipsaws using only the pivot chart.

Take for example this past Monday.
At 10a, the reversal was in the middle of a pivot area. Then around 1p, it looks like price is finally breaking through the 1039.06 pivot but then no, it goes back down below the line again, only to reverse in the middle of a pivot area again around 230p. Looking only at the pivot chart I can't see why the price would have reversed for that nice move up to the close. Of course I've got other indicators that would have told me this move was likely, but how did the pivot chart help in this situation?
Maybe this is what you describe as a "pivot failure"?

I hope you know I'm not debunking anything here, I'm just curious how this works. Obviously there are many things going on that I don't see, newbee that I am.

thanks,
jd