Are pivots useful ? a statistical response

Quote from fortuna:



Hello Funky,

What do you suggest ? that prices tend to converge towards the pivot most of the time ?
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what i am 'suggesting' is that in the attempt to find liquidity at various pivot levels, there are some MAJOR patterns that happen with astounding frequency. :)
 
Today on the dax, you would have made (I made) as of now Dax @ 3577 , 64.5 points or nearly 2 % with very high reward ratio, with 3 trades (one has been stopped)

signal 1 point before pivot
stop loss 3 points behind pivot

Time frame 1 minute

R1=3602.33 High of day = 3606.5

Pivot= 3554.67 low day=3547.5

hOW FUNNY FOR nqz3
, R1 is 1419.33
 
Fortuna,

What days numbers do you use to calculate s&r for the Dax? I'm trading it from 7am to 1pm cst and just used the high and low from the 2am to the second I sit down. Or would you suggest the previous days H,L,C #'s?


Thanks!
 
Fortuna,

What days numbers do you use to calculate s&r for the Dax? I'm trading it from 7am to 1pm cst and just used the high and low from the 2am to the second I sit down. Or would you suggest the previous days H,L,C #'s?


Thanks!
 
Quote from funky:

you are missing an important statistic. here is some homework for all of you. find out how many days the pivot # (the middle one) was reached during the intraday session. now find out the average distance that price opened from a pivot each day. this should open some eyes. :) then see how FAR away price got on average BEFORE touching the pivot. even better ;)
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Funky,

Can you clarify something for me. When you talk about "the middle one" what are you refering too?

Thanks,

Runningbear
 
Here is something even more astonishing. Did you ever hear of Dawkins Square of 17?

Here is how it would have worked today with the ES

17x 60 = 1020 (the 60th Square of 17)

Now let's take this out to a Fib extension. 1.618 x 17 = 27.506 (or the 61.618 Square of 17) = 1047.506. Today's high? 1047.75.

How do we get the low? 61.25 Squares of 17 = 1041.25. The actual low? 1040.75

OK, there is a lot more to this than one post can go in to. But here is the skinny.

17 is the "magic" number. If you want to get reliable (VERY RELIABLE) support and resistance levels, use "natural increments (1/2, 1/3, 1/4,, etc ) of 17.

Another example. Do you think that you could have made money today if you knew that 1045.50 would be a pivotal number? Can you multiply 17x 61.5?

You can get hoodwinked with all this other crap if you want to, but 17 and it's various Squares will NEVER let you down.
 
Quote from Runningbear:



Funky,

Can you clarify something for me. When you talk about "the middle one" what are you refering too?

Thanks,

Runningbear
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....s2,s1,p,r1,r2.....

i'm referring to 'p'.
 
Quote from John Q. Public:


You can get hoodwinked with all this other crap if you want to, but 17 and it's various Squares will NEVER let you down.
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That squishing sound you hear is all the gimmees getting wet over your post :p
 
Funky, I read with great interest your posts as you seem to be succesful with Pivots, but I find many of them "cryptic".

Could you be so kind as to post what your system is for trading Pivots? Just some quick bullet points about how you make money with them every day.

I look forward to your response.
 
Quote from newtoet:

Funky, I read with great interest your posts as you seem to be succesful with Pivots, but I find many of them "cryptic".

Could you be so kind as to post what your system is for trading Pivots? Just some quick bullet points about how you make money with them every day.

I look forward to your response.
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newtoet....

i apologize if my writing is cryptic...i never was good at english composition. my skills are primarily in logic and math. i think the best way for you to be successful at this is to plot the pivot lines on your intraday chart each day. look at how price reacts to the pivots. also look at the 9:45 and 10:30 times for us markets. they are what are called 'time pivots'. these concepts will become clearer to you as you watch in context.

there are many ways to make money with floor pivot #'s. in fact, i have been experimenting alot with this and have come up with many different strategies. soon you will be trying to figure out which strategies fit your personality. some will have smoother equity curves than others, but are a bit more conservative; and vice versa.

a good goal would be to capture the daily range. see how you can achieve this by using the 'time pivots' along with the floor pivot #'s.

good luck!!
 
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