Are my ambitions too much?

[drosengarden]

Quote from Mike805:

To the OP,

Your system requires a bit more thought and testing. 10 days is a drop in the bucket. Furthermore, a trader makes money NOT a system, as PTG said, become a good trader first, then code a system based on the knowledge and experience you've acquired.

Also, I recommend TradeStation for someone in your position. IMO it is the easiest way to quickly backtest without much software knowledge.

Mike

I take this completely to heart and hence why I am here trying to get real live input before splashing my money around somewhere. I've been saying that my results MUST be "too good to be true," and at best - they probably are - but could still make SOME money.

As for TradeStation - I found that one and liked it - but then I heard that the broker side of the company tends to "delay data" and cause problems with the trades that can screw up a traders price fulfilliment or ability to monitor the market if the data "freezes" up for minutes at a time. Any experience with that or would you say that this software AND broker are reputable?

Thanks.

 

[cold]

Quote from drosengarden:


So what if they do? If they sell when I sell - won't that push prices lower - and if they buy when I buy - won't that push prices higher? In the end - wouldn't that be better for me (assuming I'm on the beginning edge of the buying/selling streak - before the prices are pushed?) Or am I misunderstanding the consequences of many people trading the same strategy?

Thanks.

yes a classic question, thank you for asking since some older ETers still don't get that part (guys like Mike805)


well what if they trade bigger size and have faster access

their bot can screw your bot, there is more but I gott go

 

[cold]

Quote from Mike805:

It would serve you well at this point to ignore "cold".

Just my 2 cents.

Mike

I pity you, look at date you joined yet you know nothing

 

[silvermotion]

Quote from drosengarden:

Silver -

Thanks for the feedback. That 180 days of data you are talking about is EXACTLY what I would like to look at. Where do I get it and what software do I use to analyze and create "bots" as you call them?

Thanks.

for the data - opentick (free) or esignal (not free, thats what i use)

then to create bots :

if you have time to dedicate to this, in esignal you can follow easy tutorials that will give you enough javascript knowledge to be able to code indicators and scripts to do your backtesting for you automatically. Basic indicators can be coded easily (its just a mathematical formula that will be plotted on the chart) but coding scripts that will do backtesting for you (in a script you assemble the conditions for the entry and exit of the trades you want it to take) can be more complicated and tedious.

Once you have a script that generates money, its already 3/4 of a working bot, because it takes and counts the trades and the P&L correctly, you just need to add the commands for the order entry(Buy conditions met, send buy command, etc) which is pretty easy. I use ninja trader for that purpose. The bot runs in esignal, sends commands to the ninja trader platform, which execute the trades through my broker.

if you dont have time, you can hire people to do it for you, but youd be handing them your secrets. If your thing works and it generates money, you don't want to do that

 

[Mike805]

Quote from drosengarden:

I take this completely to heart and hence why I am here trying to get real live input before splashing my money around somewhere. I've been saying that my results MUST be "too good to be true," and at best - they probably are - but could still make SOME money.

As for TradeStation - I found that one and liked it - but then I heard that the broker side of the company tends to "delay data" and cause problems with the trades that can screw up a traders price fulfilliment or ability to monitor the market if the data "freezes" up for minutes at a time. Any experience with that or would you say that this software AND broker are reputable?

Thanks.

Many people (I mean A LOT) go through the system design process and find good results right away. They then trade said system live and soon find that it fails. The reason is usually a simple lack of experience - there are just a lot of things that you don't know yet. It's okay, just remember it takes time to learn what does and doesn't work in the markets. Backtesting can be deceiving, you need to be careful at identifying what exactly you are trying to exploit price-wise. If you're using computing power (i.e. optimizing parameters) you're likely barking up the wrong tree. If you're going the high-frequency route (1 trade per day or more), your competition stiffens even further. I can go on an on, the pitfalls are virtually endless. But, good systems can be found, just make sure to educate yourself as much as possible before using real money.

TradeStation is OK. Not that good and not that bad. Their quotes will sometimes lag when the market is moving (post fed meeting), but in general, they offer good service, great historcial data and a good/intuitive programming interface. I use them entirely for quick and dirty backtesting. I've tried OpenQuant, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts... I keep coming back to TradeStation because it is just really easy. Note that I don't use TS for my main trading activity, but, when I have, they did pretty well (I trade large blocks and TS WILL NOT budge much on comissions). Also, their trading forums are great - if you intend to seriously pursue designing and trading a system, log onto TS forums and do a search for a poster named "Nemo" and "Mathemagician". When you read through their posts on systemic trading you will then know what you need to know. Again, software = good, broker = fair, and trading forum = excellent.

 

[Mike805]

Quote from cold:

I pity you, look at date you joined yet you know nothing

Cold,

I know what you are talking about and a trader like the OP doesn't have to worry about that for years to come.

Also, moving a market is a cost of doing buisness. I know how the bots work (I've designed some of them) and their edge exists in "impulse" order flow, i.e. aggresive taking of liquidity - something this poster is no where near. When one gets to this level the execution services available minimize this cost substantially, i.e. the edge of the bot doesn't beat the spread in most cases. Personally, I'm okay with paying the spread.

In terms of brokers doing what you suggest, well, be careful what you write here. The SEC does monitor these boards and you've essentially incriminated yourself/your broker.

Mike

 

[silvermotion]

Quote from Mike805:

Many people (I mean A LOT) go through the system design process and find good results right away. They then trade said system live and soon find that it fails. The reason is usually a simple lack of experience - there are just a lot of things that you don't know yet. It's okay, just remember it takes time to learn what does and doesn't work in the markets. Backtesting can be deceiving, you need to be careful at identifying what exactly you are trying to exploit price-wise. If you're using computing power (i.e. optimizing parameters) you're likely barking up the wrong tree. If you're going the high-frequency route (1 trade per day or more), your competition stiffens even further. I can go on an on, the pitfalls are virtually endless. But, good systems can be found, just make sure to educate yourself as much as possible before using real money.

So true. It happened to me a lot of times, exactly what you are describing.

 

[cold]

Quote from Mike805:


In terms of brokers doing what you suggest, well, be careful what you write here. The SEC does monitor these boards and you've essentially incriminated yourself/your broker.

Mike

first of all my apologies, I thought you were slow

and second well I lie a lot, I never really worked for a broker

not that I know of anyway

 

[ProfitTakgFool]

cold, like I said, I don't doubt this shit goes on but it's not something any trader should be worried about. There are bigger obstacles to finding your way than worrying about the broker stealing your method.

Heck, if I owned a brokerage firm I'd fade every noob that walked in the door and win 95% of the time. It's more likely the broker will take the other side rather than steal his method. And, studying one's past results won't make you money. There is so much judgment involved in trading that you could never black box a system just by getting somone's triggers.

I don't mean any disrespect but this guy has bigger walls to climb before he needs to consider covering his tracks. I don't hide a thing from my broker. If they follow along then more power to them. I don't care.

Quote from cold:

Profit taking fool

because I know for a fact that you are a real trader, I'll try not to embarrass you in public too much

why do you assume that we all do the same thing

I know what you do, you posted it many times, you buy dips and sell tops on day trading basis, and it works for you

you also said how you use doubling number of cars in some of your consecutive trades

but do you really think that we all do the same thing

put it simply my way is better in all ways

I worked for a broker in my youth, I STOLE RECORDS OF CLIENTS, TOOK them home and studied them

come on man, some of us were born pretty hungry man

you have no idea the shit I went through, I started out eating pigeon poo

 

[ProfitTakgFool]

You have to understand things like impatience, impulsiveness, situations of fear, and so on. Once you begin trading with real money you will know what I'm talking about. Once the market wacks you you'll remember it and it will weigh on you. You will start equating a current setup to the one you got wacked on when you shouldn't. This is a destructive path and something you have to be aware of. EVERYTHING changes when go in with real money and the biggest chance will come from within. You have to get a grip on that and understand and learn how to think and act like a trader. This is step 1.

Quote from drosengarden:

I appreciate your insights (very fatherly!) I trust you mean well.

What exactly do you mean - work on myself? How the heck do I do that?

And if my several "timing" indicators are not enough or the wrong game to play in today's market - what are the right ones?

Thanks again!