are markets truly random?

tradestrong · Jan 3, 2008

Quote from HolyGrail:

It has a great deal to do with the odds of winning unless of course you chose the same numbers for all 124,000 tickets. As long as you chose a different combination your chances of winning increases because you are playing with a finite number of total numbers.

edit: or said in simpler terms. I will give you three chances to guess the number I am thinking of between 1 and 3. Ya think your odds aren't improved by those three guesses?

You're referring to probabilities of winning, not the odds of any one (or two) games. The news article was outlining the odds of winning two lotto games, not the probabilities as that would be drastically different for every single player based upon their playing history. So the news article was not incorrect as blackjack was saying.

Secondly, he calculated the probabilities wrong, because the "independent event" is two games, not one game.

HolyGrail · Jan 3, 2008

I didn't read the thread but you said:
The number of times you play the games have nothing to do with the odds of winning.

And I stand by my answer. If i have 3 guesses to guess a number between 1 and 3 my odds of winning are now 100%. In my book, I increased my odds of winning. You can use whatever semantics you want to use, but I am a guaranteed winner under that scenario, and a guaranteed winner has a great deal to do with the odds of winning.

A lottery is a one time event and the more times you enter before the event the better the odds for winning.

tradestrong · Jan 3, 2008

Quote from HolyGrail:

I didn't read the thread but you said:
The number of times you play the games have nothing to do with the odds of winning.

And I stand by my answer. If i have 3 guesses to guess a number between 1 and 3 my odds of winning are now 100%. In my book, I increased my odds of winning. You can use whatever semantics you want to use, but I am a guaranteed winner under that scenario, and a guaranteed winner has a great deal to do with the odds of winning.

Ok, we're arging semantics, but IMO, they are important semantics.

Your probability of winning is 100%. Technically, it's incorrect to use "odds" interchangeably with "probability". People do it (and as long as both parties agree on the definition, then that's fine), and that's where the defintions get construed if used improperly. The article specified the odds of winning two games and they used the term odds in the correct statistical manner, so they were not wrong in the statistical odds that they stated as 1 in 24 trillion.

scriabinop23 · Jan 6, 2008

Quote from HolyGrail:

I didn't read the thread but you said:
A lottery is a one time event and the more times you enter before the event the better the odds for winning.

Each lottery is a different and unique event, so previous entries have no affect on current odds or probability of winning.

Look up 'gambler's fallacy' in wiki.

HolyGrail · Jan 7, 2008

Quote from scriabinop23:

Each lottery is a different and unique event, so previous entries have no affect on current odds or probability of winning.

Look up 'gambler's fallacy' in wiki.

Here we go again. I'll give you three chances to guess a number between 1 and 3. I'd say your odds of winning are 100%. Of course you only have a 1 in three chance to guess the right number on the first try, but suddenly like magic you have a 50% chance to guess the next number, and if wrong again you have a 100% chance of winning the third try.

I agree that the odds for winning two independent events that have no effect on each other is the same as what the odds were for each event, but this is not what I was talking about in the statement you quoted.

Bascially what I was saying is your odds increase in a lottery with the each set of numbers you choose. That is all.

ronblack · Jan 7, 2008

If you are asking a scientific question then you must omit the word "truly". Otherwise, you are asking a philosophical questions. Nobody in science knows what "truly" means.

Are markets random? Many studies have shown that markets have periods with far from random behavior.

Ron

ronblack · Jan 7, 2008

Quote from HolyGrail:

If i have 3 guesses to guess a number between 1 and 3 my odds of winning are now 100%.

NOT if the number changes after your first guess , which is what happens in a lottery.

Ron

HolyGrail · Jan 7, 2008

Quote from ronblack:

NOT if the number changes after your first guess , which is what happens in a lottery.

Ron

The first drawing of a lottery gives you as many guesses as you so choose prior to the drawing. Your odds of winning do increase with each guess. I was not referring to two lotteries, only one.

ronblack · Jan 7, 2008

Quote from HolyGrail:

The first drawing of a lottery gives you as many guesses as you so choose prior to the drawing. Your odds of winning do increase with each guess. I was not referring to two lotteries, only one.

True, you can "buy the lottery" if you wish for a 100% chance of winning. If I recall you will need to buy:

N = n!/(n-k)! lottery tickets

Ron