are markets truly random?

Quote from blackjack007:

no it cannot. if something is 100% random, it will form a normal distribution curve, nothing else. if it forms an abnormal curve, it is not random.

if the markets were 100% random, then statistically the odds of a single-day drop of 22% (ala 1987) was less than one in one trillion to the trillionth power. put it this way: that's greater than the estimated life expectancy of the universe measured in days, so if the stock market were to begin trading when the universe was born, there could NEVER be a 22% drop in a day in a truly random market. but it indeed happened, hence i conclude the markets are not random.
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You are completely wrong.

People have won the lottery twice. The chances of that happening are 1 in trillions, yet people have won it twice.

So would you say that winning the lottery twice is not random since the odds of it happening are beyond comprehension?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/12/12/MN159178.DTL

That is a prime example of an "outlier". Freakish things happen when they "shouldn't" based on perfect random distributions.
 
Quote from tradestrong:

You are completely wrong.

People have won the lottery twice. The chances of that happening are 1 in trillions, yet people have won it twice.

So would you say that winning the lottery twice is not random since the odds of it happening are beyond comprehension?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/12/12/MN159178.DTL

That is a prime example of an "outlier". Freakish things happen when they "shouldn't" based on perfect random distributions.
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all back to gambler's fallacy.

using arbitrary probabilities, the odds of winning the lottery once may be 1 in a million, or twice one in a billion. But if you've already won once, you're chances of winning again are now 1 in a million. (not 1 in a billion)


[err.. i just read that article.. twice in one day, wow...]
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

all back to gambler's fallacy.

using arbitrary probabilities, the odds of winning the lottery once may be 1 in a million, or twice one in a billion. But if you've already won once, you're chances of winning again are now 1 in a million. (not 1 in a billion)


[err.. i just read that article.. twice in one day, wow...]
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To be technically correct, if you're only referring to each game individually, your odds are the same every single time you play the lottery (whether you've won or not), they don't change game to game.

The probability changes game to game the more you play.

But the odds of winning the game twice are 1 in 24 trillion.
So going by "pure odds", a faulty argument would state that since the odds are so astronomically high, nobody should be able to win the lotto twice in a reasonable life-time.

(Of course, like I said, it's a faulty argument)
 
I guess to tie my "random" post back in :D , if you were designing a lotto game let's say, the statistical anomaly that somebody actually does win the lotto twice for all intents and purposes can be "ignored".

"Theoretically", every player could win twice, but the odds of that happening are practically zero. So, in designing this lotto game, one can assume that it is possible that people can win the lotto twice but it can still be ignored in developing a profitable game for the lotterer (is that a word :D )...

...So if it does happen, that random outlier event can be thrown out.
 
:(

What you believe is what you see. Without "man" there is no market. Fear and greed.


Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it.

Do not believe in anything because it is spoken and rumored by many.

Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.

Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your books.

Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.

But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with
reason…then accept it and live up to it.

-The Buddha

And even "Jesus" told his disciples and his followers to prove the "word of the bible" wrong
 

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Quote from tradestrong:

You are completely wrong.

People have won the lottery twice. The chances of that happening are 1 in trillions, yet people have won it twice.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2002/12/12/MN159178.DTL
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i'm not wrong. but that article is wrong and i can't believe no one here noticed. (actually, i can believe that...).

the odds of winning those particular lotteries twice with just two tickets is 1 in 24 trillion. but it took them 124,000 tickets to win twice, hence the odds are 1 in 192 million. that is a fathomable event. one in one trillion to the trillionth power (150 zeros) is not.
 
Quote from blackjack007:

i'm not wrong. but that article is wrong and i can't believe no one here noticed. (actually, i can believe that...).

the odds of winning those particular lotteries twice with just two tickets is 1 in 24 trillion. but it took them 124,000 tickets to win twice, hence the odds are 1 in 192 million. that is a fathomable event. one in one trillion to the trillionth power (150 zeros) is not.
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Are you confused about something? The number of times you play the games have nothing to do with the odds of winning. What does the fact that they played 124,000 tickets have to do with the odds of the games themselves?

Each game is an independent event and in this case, the "independent" event would be considered twice winning, so you would multiply the odds of each game together to acquire the odds of the "one time event" of winning the lotto twice.
 
Quote from tradestrong:

Are you confused about something? The number of times you play the games have nothing to do with the odds of winning. What does the fact that they played 124,000 tickets have to do with the odds of the games themselves?
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It has a great deal to do with the odds of winning unless of course you chose the same numbers for all 124,000 tickets. As long as you chose a different combination your chances of winning increases because you are playing with a finite number of total numbers.

edit: or said in simpler terms. I will give you three chances to guess the number I am thinking of between 1 and 3. Ya think your odds aren't improved by those three guesses as opposed to just 1 guess?
 
Saying the market is random allows people to take less responsibility for their failures.

The market in no way is 100% predictable, but then neither is any individual human being.

You can generally make a reasonable prediction of a person's behavior after some observation, same goes for the markets, since they are generally driven by people.

Spend enough time watching it, and you will get to where you can make reasonable reliable guesses as to the future.
 
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