are markets truly random?

[ProfitTakgFool]

Very good analogy. Will lightening strike in a thunder storm? Yes. Ok, where? The world is random and the markets are just an extention of the world we live in.

Quote from rateesquad:

Random as lightning. You can tell the general area where it will hit, but you cannot predict exact area. Same in markets, you can tell which way the security will drift but you will not be able to tell exact points.

Of course, you can cheat. Use a meal rod to attract lightning, in order to make your chances better. In securities it is the same, and it is called inside trading.

Got to love my metaphors.

 

[ProfitTakgFool]

No shit, so the SEC believes you are trading the way you do because you have information you shouldn't have? Well...there's no defense like the truth. If I ever received one of those citations I'd invite the to my house for a few days.

Quote from cd23:

Just to let you know, when your broker calls to let you know they have received a citation on your behave from the SEC, it does feel like more than just static electricity in the air. The broker is definitely NOT on your side for the moment.

My record is 5 in one year.

I regard this as a definitive compliment on my TA trading methods and executions and is a direct evaluation of whether markets are random. The SEC simply believes that NO ONE can trade what the market makes available. Why did they get to this place in the information space? It is definitely through deep and abiding ignorance which is common in the financial industry.

 

[rateesquad]

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

Very good analogy. Will lightening strike in a thunder storm? Yes. Ok, where? The world is random and the markets are just an extention of the world we live in.

The storm will strike in the general area of the storm, to be more precise near the center of the storm. Markets work the same way. If the whole thing is in an uptrend it is likely that your security will follow.

Happy New Year.

 

[fearless9]

Quote from Champion:

Who doesn't think they know or have all or most of the above? Not many. But between thinking it and making a fortune from the market is a gap you and almost all others at ET cannot and will not be able to bridge.

Simple.No offence intended.

Why concern yourself with the endeavours of others.
This is wasteful thinking.
Would it not be better to focus only on those thoughts that propel you forward.

The business of other people is best left to those other people in my opinion.

regards
f9

 

[robbie380]

Quote from rateesquad:

Random as lightning. You can tell the general area where it will hit, but you cannot predict exact area. Same in markets, you can tell which way the security will drift but you will not be able to tell exact points.

Of course, you can cheat. Use a meal rod to attract lightning, in order to make your chances better. In securities it is the same, and it is called inside trading.

Got to love my metaphors.

sounds cool but it doesn't really seem applicable to profitable trading. if you sit around and wait for the right opportunity that you have seen before then you can pretty much know what is going to occur. example....trading listed IPOs...you have the massive stabilizing bid with no major bids below it for another point. stock can't move up and offers are stacking up giving you outs above the bid. the second the bid gets sold you get short.

conversely you get long in front of the massive bid and use that as support for a trade.

these are pretty reliable setups for listed IPOs that aren't cheating. they are just understanding how order flows work and how the stabilizing bids work.

 

[cnms2]

... not worth the dust on my screen.

Quote from mrbluelegs:

Ask George Soros then ask a Phd. mathematician making 30k a year.

 

[blackjack007]

Quote from ProfitTakgFool:

randomness can form abnormal curves

no it cannot. if something is 100% random, it will form a normal distribution curve, nothing else. if it forms an abnormal curve, it is not random.

if the markets were 100% random, then statistically the odds of a single-day drop of 22% (ala 1987) was less than one in one trillion to the trillionth power. put it this way: that's greater than the estimated life expectancy of the universe measured in days, so if the stock market were to begin trading when the universe was born, there could NEVER be a 22% drop in a day in a truly random market. but it indeed happened, hence i conclude the markets are not random.

 

[patoo]

Quote from BSAM:
Mods please move this post to the "Drivel" Forum. Thanks.

Quote from patoo:
The random question has been asked and answered a hundred times ................

BSAM you are a little late....I already said that, but all your edgy commentary kept it going

 

[hypostomus]

Blackjack007, thank you for demonstrating to us that you know virtually nothing about improbability and sadistics. You have single-handedly given me my daily re-affirmation that ET is filled with mathematical illiterates.

 

[hypostomus]

BSAM, give CD23 credit. It is hard to do a convincing Jack imitation.