Could go either way....Holiday sentiment seems bullish.
Are lottery Butterflies worth it?
- Thread starter Ironplates
- Start date
Could go either way....Holiday sentiment seems bullish.
assignment risk would be what?
thanks NVDA was on my list, i took both sides. the return to own both is still good enough relative the cost.
do that across a basket of stocks and something will hit.
i sold OTM 20 wide iron condors on the SPX today for both sides, if it moves by the close, something will expire in the money.
buying stock to mark higher to market and help report lower tax exposure
I had a think about this during the Christmas break.
Wondering about combining long OtM directional flies (close enough to have +ve expected value, so not really lottery-level cheap) to hedge against short AtM Iron flies for vol.
I did a bit of backtesting and it looks like it might have legs, but I have more work to do. Thoughts welcomed.
Wondering about combining long OtM directional flies (close enough to have +ve expected value, so not really lottery-level cheap) to hedge against short AtM Iron flies for vol.
I did a bit of backtesting and it looks like it might have legs, but I have more work to do. Thoughts welcomed.
You're not really paying anything for the OTM fly and they don't have any gamma, so why lose on both if mkt trades away (from your iron)?
Best to trade OTM fly -> stress neutrality (gain) -> dynamic hedge in spot. The debit will be small so it won't require size in the hedge. Excess gains if mkt trades away, and simply cover on a strike touch/neutrality.
Just stress the neutral fly x date (two day hold? Reduce TTE by two days).
keep me posted, ill collab with you on this.
i will also add. could something like VOLD, ADL, and cummulative TICK help give us market internals that indicate a trend or non trend day. if markets are not trending, SELL the FLY otherwise buy them.
here's the video from an SMB trader with more detail on this
ive sold 30W ATM IRON CONDORS and used the outside FLYS as a hedge to cover those inside shorts. however, the market has efficiently priced that strategy if entered it all at the same time. there could be a time to buy the hedge at another time or based on another signal to create the + EV