Title says it all..
Are candlesticks a good trade signal?
- Thread starter never lose ever
- Start date
No
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=980583
and No
http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jod.2005.580514
Very small and short-term
http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/2008/candlestick08.pdf
Other links
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2778062&highlight=candlesticks#post2778062
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2757678&highlight=candlesticks#post2757678
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=980583
and No
http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jod.2005.580514
Very small and short-term
http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/2008/candlestick08.pdf
Other links
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2778062&highlight=candlesticks#post2778062
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2757678&highlight=candlesticks#post2757678
lol. I'm sure they haven't traded a day in their life either. Without the right knowledge anyone can screw up anything.
Did they publish anything on indicators too? I'm sure that's a real laugh as well.
These are academic papers worth reading. We do not know if they have traded or not. Anyways, one paper is more optimistic about candles.
Good to see. Not worried though. My opinions/experiences differ slightly
There are many threads on this topic here at EliteTrader.com and some of the long time members that don't post here any more have done their own in-depth statistical analysis of Japanese Candlestick patterns including me (my former alias is NihabaAshi).
I've studied almost every published candlestick pattern in application to futures, exchange traded funds and forex currencies. In addition, I've taken it a few steps deeper via creating my own personal sub-groups and variations (e.g. there are +15 types of bullish white hammer patterns).
Summary:
* Do not use them all by themselves. Instead, use them as a secondary or confirmation signal.
* Do not use them to define the price action. Simply, you should already understand the price action (bullish, bearish or whatever) prior to the appearance of any candlestick pattern as an entry signal into what you already know about the price action.
* That understanding of the price action is called market context. Without it, Japanese Candlesticks or anything else won't work.
* Do not use computer codes for real trading (e.g. automated or mechanical systems). In fact, I've never met a profitable trader as such that exclusively uses Japanese Candlesticks all by themselves without input from another method or market context.
* Overall...a particular pattern doesn't work but there may be a sub-group or variation that does work within market context (e.g. only a few sub-groups of those +15 bullish white hammer patterns do work...everything else about that pattern is just crap).
* Trade management after entry of a Japanese Candlestick is key to the pattern success. There has not been one publish research were the trade management was adequate nor any research into the sub-groups or variations.
However, with the above said, if you feel the need to backtest via computer codes and discover what some of us already know (read the above)...reveal your understanding of the price action (market context) and your trade management after entry.
I get into a little of this in my own thread here at ET called Trading Hammers (revisited) @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=52880
In addition, here's a recent discussion with a backtester about the importance of market context in my discussions with a backtester name guruji that has publish some of his testing results @ http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/do-candlesticks-work-7900.html
Mark
I've studied almost every published candlestick pattern in application to futures, exchange traded funds and forex currencies. In addition, I've taken it a few steps deeper via creating my own personal sub-groups and variations (e.g. there are +15 types of bullish white hammer patterns).
Summary:
* Do not use them all by themselves. Instead, use them as a secondary or confirmation signal.
* Do not use them to define the price action. Simply, you should already understand the price action (bullish, bearish or whatever) prior to the appearance of any candlestick pattern as an entry signal into what you already know about the price action.
* That understanding of the price action is called market context. Without it, Japanese Candlesticks or anything else won't work.
* Do not use computer codes for real trading (e.g. automated or mechanical systems). In fact, I've never met a profitable trader as such that exclusively uses Japanese Candlesticks all by themselves without input from another method or market context.
* Overall...a particular pattern doesn't work but there may be a sub-group or variation that does work within market context (e.g. only a few sub-groups of those +15 bullish white hammer patterns do work...everything else about that pattern is just crap).
* Trade management after entry of a Japanese Candlestick is key to the pattern success. There has not been one publish research were the trade management was adequate nor any research into the sub-groups or variations.
However, with the above said, if you feel the need to backtest via computer codes and discover what some of us already know (read the above)...reveal your understanding of the price action (market context) and your trade management after entry.
I get into a little of this in my own thread here at ET called Trading Hammers (revisited) @ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=52880
In addition, here's a recent discussion with a backtester about the importance of market context in my discussions with a backtester name guruji that has publish some of his testing results @ http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/do-candlesticks-work-7900.html
Mark