Are bonds in a bubble?

yes there is a bubble. just look at a 50 year chart of bonds (bonds are at a permanently high plateau. sure.

wait for sell in may to end before you short bonds. a BIG secret is that bonds also have seasonality. there i gave you revealed the secret. Much easier just like stocks to buy in a santa claus rally than buy in october (with fear of previous crashes)
 
I am not sure what a bubble is but something is going on with 30 yr. tbond
futures not related to fundamentals. zbm14 rose from mid 135's to mid 137s
in 3 days. The fed has announced reduced treasury buying so at least the long end of
the curve can't keep rising. Only explanation I can think of is that either some
hedge fund is about to blow up or being pushed over the edge. I continue selling
every 3/4 points upward. Has anyone heard any rumors?
 
vanv0029 said:
I am not sure what a bubble is but something is going on with 30 yr. tbond
futures not related to fundamentals. zbm14 rose from mid 135's to mid 137s
in 3 days. The fed has announced reduced treasury buying so at least the long end of
the curve can't keep rising. Only explanation I can think of is that either some
hedge fund is about to blow up or being pushed over the edge. I continue selling
every 3/4 points upward. Has anyone heard any rumors?
More...

I was thinking the same thing, someone has to be short these and that's gonna leave a mark. Big outflows this year from Pimco, not sure the effect if any.
 
Since jan1 and for the 1st quater bonds are attracting bids/money and performance along with a few other areas. Reits, and utilities are up good as should be with falling rates (also viewed as safety trades) . Energy stocks and food/farm/meat producers
Are also up as well.
Maybe it is just a money flow/rotation thing, chasing performance, rather than
Flight/crisis brewing.
Just comsidering the relationships between euro,yen,bonds and dollar is tough.
Catalsyts/drivers/correlations change. Why did the dollar sell off hard on taper
Announcement? Taken alone it shouldnt have (and int did quickly recover) but in relation to the afforementioned big three and emerging markets it makes sense in hindsight.
Rates have locked/correlated strongly positive with the dollar for 2014 and with
Euro expectations for "something" and euro periph PIGS yeilds about as extremely
complacent as our VIX , (CNN and FOX dont cover Ukraine so it mist be OK) maybe we do go more risk off +1 and bonds continue up along with the dollar.
I think Europe is front center. Earnings , gdp and weekly numbers are only good for a few hundred dow points down.

No bond bubble. Levitation. US will never see 7-8 % 30 year mortgage again. Japan like.
Jeez,i also think the high print in sp500 is in for months , mostly seasonal reason.
Online retail will save the year however for a .5% year all in the last 30 minutes of 2014.
Can Japan double down? Japan stocks are sinking. Maybe thats front center.
 
Since jan1 and for the 1st quater bonds are attracting bids/money and performance along with a few other areas. Reits, and utilities are up good as should be with falling rates (also viewed as safety trades) . Energy stocks and food/farm/meat producers
Are also up as well.
Maybe it is just a money flow/rotation thing, chasing performance, rather than
Flight/crisis brewing.
Just comsidering the relationships between euro,yen,bonds and dollar is tough.
Catalsyts/drivers/correlations change. Why did the dollar sell off hard on taper
Announcement? Taken alone it shouldnt have (and int did quickly recover) but in relation to the afforementioned big three and emerging markets it makes sense in hindsight.
Rates have locked/correlated strongly positive with the dollar for 2014 and with
Euro expectations for "something" and euro periph PIGS yeilds about as extremely
complacent as our VIX , (CNN and FOX dont cover Ukraine so it mist be OK) maybe we do go more risk off +1 and bonds continue up along with the dollar.
I think Europe is front center. Earnings , gdp and weekly numbers are only good for a few hundred dow points down.

No bond bubble. Levitation. US will never see 7-8 % 30 year mortgage again. Japan like.
Jeez,i also think the high print in sp500 is in for months , mostly seasonal reason.
Online retail will save the year however for a .5% year all in the last 30 minutes of 2014.
Can Japan double down? Japan stocks are sinking. Maybe thats front center.
Soros and Kovner can put these scenarios together and trade them but regular folk cannot.
 
vanv0029 said:
I am not sure what a bubble is but something is going on with 30 yr. tbond
futures not related to fundamentals. zbm14 rose from mid 135's to mid 137s
in 3 days. The fed has announced reduced treasury buying so at least the long end of
the curve can't keep rising. Only explanation I can think of is that either some
hedge fund is about to blow up or being pushed over the edge. I continue selling
every 3/4 points upward. Has anyone heard any rumors?
More...

I've heard that sanctions have attacked profits in some American companies. Also that Belgium is buying US treasuries like no tomorrow. So my guess is that some really really bad news is coming out of Europe.
 
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